Jobs Report Reveals A Lot About U.S. Economy - Mostly Not Good

The Labor Department monthly employment report Friday will tell us a lot about the health of the economy—much of it not good.

Forecasters expect the monthly tally of new jobs to come in at about 190,000. That’s well below last year’s pace and a figure significantly below that modest target would indicate the economy is at high risk of another recession.

Since the Obama recovery began, the economy has expanded at a paltry 2.2 percent annual pace, and factoring in recessions the overall rate of economic growth has been only 1.8 percent since the turn of the century.  Consequently, in recent years new jobs have been created at about half the pace of the Reagan years.

During the Reagan-Clinton era, when more aggressive growth policies and deregulation were in the vogue, the economy grew at a 3.4 percent annual pace. Family incomes rose an average of $9,250, whereas during the George W. Bush-Barack Obama era, those have fallen about $4000.

Consumers, the engine of all advanced economies, continue to spend, but the strong dollar is pinning down exports and cheap imports are battering U.S. manufacturers. Businesses are becoming increasingly skeptical about expanding in the United States, and giants likeFord and Carrier are moving facilities to more business friendly Mexico.

Troubles in China can only be blamed to a point. Its miracle was fueled by a cheap currency—and that has pulled down U.S. growth by destabilizing American manufacturing—but also by government banks that finance factories that run perpetual losses to sell coffee makers and the like to American consumers. Both the recent Bush and Obama administrations can be blamed for not taking the kind of tough measures against Chinese protectionism advocated by Donald Trump and liberal New York Times columnist Paul Krugman.

At home, Dodd-Frank has hamstrung community banks with mindless regulations when they had little to do with the financial collapse. They simply cannot lend to local enterprises as they once did, and small businesses are closing more rapidly than they are opening. Hence a lot of those Silicon Valley innovations don’t translate into jobs in America and don’t get applied by emerging enterprises to foster productivity growth—the mother’s milk of rising living standards.

Hillary Clinton promises to get tough with China, but her obsession with “breaking down barriers” is a focus on battles long ago won. The hardly conservative Economist magazine has accused Democrats of misrepresenting the wage gap between men and women and “waxing indignant” about discrimination to cynically harvest female votes. It’s tough to find a business in America that believes discriminating against women or blacks would attract more customers or make them more efficient and profitable, except the Democratic get-out-the-vote machine.

On trade her proposed methods are vague and sound much like a continuation of Obama’s failed tactics. What’s more, her record as Secretary of State suggests the opposite. The U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement, implemented on her watch, has added $16 billion to the trade deficit and killed 130,000 jobs. And Obama similarly promised to get tough with China on a host of issues but simply failed to take tangible actions once in office.

Taking advantage of new technologies often requires moving workers across state lines and into cities. However, local governments have imposed employment licensing and land use regulations that push up apartment rents, and both make worker relocation and jobs creation much more difficult to accomplish.

We have heard a lot from Donald Trump about his views on getting tough on trade and immigration but not much about pulling out and burning the roots of federal and state bureaucratic fiefdoms that are rapidly turning America into New France.

A paradise for the well-educated from top schools with access to power and the best jobs but dungeon of low wages, tedious work and government handouts for the rest of us.

Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster ...

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Moon Kil Woong 9 years ago Contributor's comment

The attack on imports is misfounded. The reason why the US has moved so heavily towards imports is due to the US misfounded policy of running massive debts and the Federal Reserve's easy money policies that would otherwise create inflation. In order to counter act that US businesses have had to constantly find cheaper ways to produce to counteract that.

Still the US has sun out of control debt which has now made it almost impossible for the US to self fund its own debt and made us dependent on China and others to carry our massive federal government debt load. The underpinning of a strong government, strong economy, and strong defense lays first in economic strength and financial soundness. This we have been giving up and the bad results are starting to take their toll as the Federal Reserve plumbs new financial lows to fight the fundamentals of capitalism which we all now suffer from in ever increasing amounts.

If it were the Federal Reserve's choice they would be screaming, France, Japan, and China here we come. We disavow capitalism and have nothing to do with democracy, ethicalness, or anything else but enriching the big banks we are elected from. Socialism and programmed economics all the way. We must do something about this unelected part of our government before it gets any worse. They are more financially reckless than anyone else in America besides maybe the fat financial firms they enrich who lie to clients and dump losses on them before every downturn and then gleefully buy it back from them only to try to do it again to them in the next cycle.