Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

 Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.

Details from the monthly BLS Employment Report.

• Nonfarm Payroll: +372,000 to 151,980,000 - Establishment Survey
• Employment: -315,000 to 158,111,000- Household Survey
• Unemployment: -38,000 to 5,912,000- Household Survey
• Baseline Unemployment Rate: unchanged at 3.6% - Household Survey
• U-6 unemployment: -0.4 to 6.7% - Household Survey
• Civilian Non-institutional Population: +156,000 to 263,835,000
• Civilian Labor Force: -353,000 to 164,023,000 - Household Survey
• Not in Labor Force: +510,000 to 99,812,000 - Household Survey
• Participation Rate: -0.1 to 62.2% - Household Survey

Revision Details

• The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 68,000, from +436,000 to +368,000
• The change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000.
• With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.

Economists' Estimates

• Nonfarm Payrolls: 270,000 expected vs 372,000 actual
• Unemployment Rate: 3.6% expected vs 3.6% actual
• Manufacturing Payrolls: 23,000 expected vs 29,000 actual
• Hourly Earnings: +0.3% expected vs 0.3% actual

The above estimates from Bloomberg Econoday.

Payrolls were stronger than expected. The unemployment rate and hourly earnings were as expected. There's another divergence between jobs and employment.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls from the BLS

For the second month we see strength in lagging sectors: Leisure and hospitality, and health services. 

Despite these gains, employment is 1.3 million lower than in February 2020.

Part-Time Jobs

• Involuntary Part-Time Work: +295,000 to 4,328,000
• Voluntary Part-Time Work: +20,000 to 20,806,000
• Total Full-Time Work: +733,000 to 132,800,000
• Total Part-Time Work: -325,000 to 25,766,000

The above numbers never total correctly. I list them as reported.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment rate data from the BLS, chart by Mish

That's 4 consecutive months of 3.6 percent unemployment.

Nonfarm Payrolls and Employment Levels

Payroll and employment data from the BLS, chart by Mish

Recovery Synopsis

• The employment level and jobs have nearly recovered all losses.
• Employment is down by 755,000
• Jobs are down by 525,000
• The numbers do not reflect increasing population or the type of job recovered.
• The red and blue dotted lines show the still significant impact Covid has on the economy.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Since February 2020

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls from the BLS

Leisure and Hospitality is still down by 1.3 million workers. Education and Health Care is down by 259000 workers. 

Professional services and transportation are humming. Expect the latter to weaken soon.

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees was unchanged at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was unchanged at 33.5 hours. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hours 40.3 hours.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose $0.10 to $32.08

Year-over-year, wages rose from $30.52 to $32.08. That's a gain of 5.2%.

Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers rose $0.13 to $27.45.

Year-over-year, wages rose from $25.81 to $27.45. That's a gain of 6.4%.

Despite the gains, wages have not kept up with inflation.

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report.

For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

The model is wildly wrong at turning points but otherwise means little. It is also heavily revised and thus useless.

Alternative Measures of Unemployment

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