Last week I pointed out that the YoY increases in initial and continuing claims appeared to be all about Texas in the wake of Beryl. This week there was good news even with some continued Beryl effects in Texas.

Initial claims declined -7,000 to 227,000 for the week, while the 4-week average declined -4,500 to 236,500. Continuing claims with the typical one-week delay declined -7,000 to 1.864 million:

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There was even better news on the more important YoY comparisons. There, initial claims were down -8.5%, and the four week average down -3.2%. Continuing claimswere up 3.4% YoY, but this is the best YoY comparison except for one week in the past 1 1/2 years:

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The news is all the better because there was still a Beryl effect in Texas, where unadjusted claims were 18.5 thousand, roughly a 2.5 thousand increase from typical summer levels last year. In other words, ex-Texas claims were down even more YoY.

Here is the updated “Sahm rule” comparison. This has not been working this year, as the unemployment rate has continued to increase even as initial and continuing jobless claims have leveled off or are lower YoY. This points to new immigrants not finding work as the root cause for the increase:

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In short, the hypothesis that this summer’s increase in initial and continuing jobless claims was unresolved post-pandemic seasonaility continues to be sustained. As of right now, claims remain positives for the near term future economy.

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