Jobless claims have been trending higher off of multi-decade lows, indicating a moderating labor market. This week, initial claims would have gone unchanged week over week at 229K if it were not for a modest upward revision to 231K to last week’s number. Claims did not change much on a week-over-week basis and remain modestly above the levels that were in place in the months before the pandemic. While it has been more than three months since initial jobless claims made a post-pandemic low, the rate of increase of those lows has been somewhat modest. 

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims moved moderately lower after topping 200K for the first time since late April last week, and at a level of 203K, this week’s figure is the lowest in the last twenty years relative to comparable weeks.

Continuing claims lag by one week relative to initial claims and moved higher for the third consecutive week, representing the longest streak of weekly increases since March 2020. However, the magnitude of the rise was quite small. In fact, at the current level of 1.315 million continuing claims are still 2.1% below the level they were at a month ago.