Openings, Hires, and Separations from BLS JOLTS data, chart by Mish

Please consider the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary JOLTS report for July 2023.

Job Openings

On the last business day of July, the number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million (-338,000), while the rate changed little at 5.3 percent. Over the month, job openings decreased in professional and business services (-198,000); health care and social assistance (-130,000); state and local government, excluding education (-67,000); state and local government education (-62,000); and federal government (-27,000). By contrast, job openings increased in information (+101,000) and in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+75,000).

Hires

In July, the number and rate of hires changed little at 5.8 million and 3.7 percent, respectively. The number of hires changed little in all industries.

Separations

Total separations include quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations include separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

The number and rate of total separations in July were little changed at 5.5 million and 3.5 percent, respectively. Over the month, the number of total separations decreased in accommodation and food services (-132,000).

In July, the number of quits decreased to 3.5 million (-253,000), while the rate changed little at 2.3 percent. The number of quits declined in accommodation and food services (-166,000); wholesale trade (-27,000); and arts, entertainment, and recreation (-17,000). The number of quits increased in state and local government education (+18,000).

Dramatic Decline in Openings Since April 2021

• April 2021: 11,755,000
• July 2023: 8,827,000

Pre-pandemic, the number of openings was 6,995,000. Openings are still elevated, assuming you believe the stats. I don’t.

With more and more online posting, companies fail to take down spots when they fill. Other companies are not really looking but they would hire the perfect person if that person applied. It’s difficult to estimate how many of the listings are real vs historic levels of openings.

Quits are another matter. Quits reflect actual decisions. And quits are back to the pre-pandemic trendline, 3,341,000 now vs 3,300,000 in February of 2020.

Job Quits by Sector in Thousands

Hires vs Nonfarm and Private Quits

Hires and quits from BLS JOLTS data, chart by Mish

Hires Drop Below Pre-Pandemic Level

Hires are now 5,773,000. That’s below the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 5,998,000.

Nonfarm and private quits are just above pre-pandemic levels.

Real Wages are Rising

At the annual Jackson Hole summit this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented “What matters for households is real wage growth. Even as nominal wage growth has slowed, real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen.”

Although the Fed will be pleased with JOLTS data, real wage growth is a concern to the Fed.

Atlanta Fed and BLS Real Measures

Real means adjusted for inflation using the CPI as the measure of inflation.

Real wages are ticking up. To the extent real wages are rising more then productivity, the net impact is inflationary.

For discussion, please see Wages for New Hires are Falling, But the Impact is Negligible

Ahead of the summit, I commented “Falling wages for new hires only won’t appease the Fed.” My comment was on target given Powell’s subsequent statements.

For more on real wages, please see Wages for New Hires are Falling, But the Impact is Negligible

UAW Gearing Up for a Strike, It Could be Long and Nasty

The United Auto Workers are gearing up for a strike, Biden is behind them 100%.

Bloomberg estimates the UAW demands would add $80 billion to costs.

UAW Demands

• 32-hour workweek
• 46 percent pay raise over 4 years
• Right to strike over plant closures
• Increased retiree benefits
• Defined pension plan for all workers
• Cost of living adjustments

For discussion, please see UAW Gearing Up for a Strike, It Could be Long and Nasty

Also, see Yet Another Biden Regulation Will Increase Costs and Promote More Inflation

Everything Biden does and supports is inflationary, at least until he manages to crash the economy.

More By This Author:

UAW Gearing Up for a Strike, It Could be Long and Nasty
The Complicated Mess To Restart Student Loan Payments Is On Purpose
How Big Is The US Housing Bubble?