Initial Claims Improve Weekly, Continue To Suggest Slow Weaking
Initial jobless claims declined to 230,000 last week. The more important 4 week average increased to 236,750. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, declined slightly to 1.702 million:
The YoY% change in the 4 week average, more important for forecasting purposes, increased to 11%, and measured monthly so far for August is up 10%:
This indicates some continued weakening in the jobs market, and at 10% on a monthly basis, renews a yellow caution flag. But to signal an oncoming recession requires 2 months in a row of a 12.5% YoY or higher increase in claims. While the current situation continues to suggest that the unemployment rate will increase perhaps 02% or even 0.3% in the coming months, there is no recession signal in this metric currently.
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Disclaimer: This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.
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