Industrial production declined for the third month in a row in November, down -0.1%, while October was revised downward another -0.2%. Manufacturing production on the other hand increased 0.2% in November, but September and October were revised downward a combined -0.3%, so on net this was another -0.1% decline. They are now down respectively -1.5% and -2.0% from their late 2022 highs:

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Before 2001 and especially before the Great Recession, any YoY decline *always* coincided with or at least immediately heralded a recession. But since the accession of China to regular trading status in 1999, downturns of even -5% or more, as in 2015-16 and 2018-19 have not necessarily meant recession.

And as this close-up of the post pandemic record show, on a YoY basis production is only down about -0.9%:

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The economy continues to be powered forward by consumption of services, and also by construction spending. Increasingly that does not include residential construction, which as I have written a number of times recently is down from its most recent peak to a level which typically in the past has meant recession. We’ll find out more about that tomorrow.

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