Hunting And Scavenging The 2016 Market Megatrends

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Vultures enjoy a day at the beach. They eat fish stranded in shallow waters or dead ones washed ashore. Vultures serve a purpose disposing of carrion that could spread disease.

What purpose do market vultures have? Not to be confused with a vulture capitalist, a market vulture is as necessary to the market as a turkey vulture is to the environment.

For starters, scavengers help add liquidity to a trade. They happily eat the remains of a trade because they’re not necessarily concerned with the risk. They are in and out quickly.

I’m much more of a market hunter similar to an owl. I enjoy spotting and hunting stocks as prey. I stalk for days, weeks and sometimes months before picking off my prey. I wait until the risk of MY becoming the prey is limited. I wait until the meal appears satisfying enough to sate me for a long while.

However, once the trade is made, I wait for the scavengers to show up. If they don’t, I wonder why not? If they do, I wonder for how long?

Reexamining a few of the 10 Megatrends I chose back in December 2015 to track in 2016, let’s examine how the hunters and vultures might have made out.

In no particular order, I begin with Climate Change. I wrote to watch “Solar Energy, Raw Materials at risk, Electric Cars, China as a possible leader in Alternative Energy Technology.”

To date, First Solar (FSLR), even after solid earnings, continues to struggle. Here, hunters who bought got burned while scavengers feeding on the carcass the hunters left behind fed well. Going forward, this hunter will remain on high alert as I still believe this megatrend will at some point, play out. And when it does, it will so for years.

Secondly, there’s Geopolitical Turmoil. For that one I wrote, “Emerging Markets, Raw Materials at risk (including oil), Defense companies and Cyber Security (At Risk-Big Banks), Impact on Travel-Hotels, Airlines and Cruise Lines”

Hunters and scavengers both ate well on many but not all of these predictions. Emerging Markets are on new 2016 highs. Oil is trying once again for a bottom. Cyber-Security, looking at HACK the ETF, is close to the 2016 high of 26.47. Many Airlines and Cruise Lines continue to do quite poorly.

Another Megatrend I covered was Online Shopping Versus Brick and Mortar. I wrote that the Megatrend “began in 2015 and should continue.” Certainly, with Amazon basically on new all-time highs and for one example, Nordstrom’s not too far from multi-year lows, this trend has kept lots of hunters and scavengers fat and happy.

A turkey vulture takes advantage of rising thermals and flaps its wings infrequently when in flight. As we look ahead to the last 5 months this year, swing traders, keep this in mind.

As the hunter stalks these Megatrends for shorts and longs, the scavengers add liquidity, volatility and keep the trends intact for quite some time. If the scavengers do not show up, then hunters should duly note their absence and question if it’s time to change their hunting grounds.

To see all ten Megatrends click here.

S&P 500 (SPY) 3 days under the 10 DMA. Today’s high must clear to avoid a soft landing. Unless, it breaks under 214.57. Then brace for a hard landing

Russell 2000 (IWM) 3 days under the 10 DMA. Needs to close back above the 10 DMA. 118.83 support.

Dow (DIA) This needs rocket fuel only a close over 184.25 can give it

Nasdaq (QQQ) Through 115.77 better

XLF (Financials) On such a pivotal area now-like to see it reconcile above this 23.70ish level or under23.40

KRE (Regional Banks) confirmed accumulation phase ahead of NFP

SMH (Semiconductors) Sister Semi’s is not done yet

IYT (Transportation) 138.55 is the weekly MA it needs to close above

IBB (Biotechnology) 293 is the key weekly number to close above

XRT (Retail) 44.65 clears the 10 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) I believe it will take some real fear to get this above 132.50 now so time for more digestion and profit taking

SLV (Silver) 19.00 big support

GDX (Gold Miners) filled the gap to 31.18-no island top

USO (US Oil Fund) Good legs for a reversal confirmation. That means cannot break recent lows

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Considering the slaughter in FSLR, this held up well

Disclosure: None.

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