Housing data from the Census Department. Chart by Mish.

Please consider the Census Department New Residential Construction Report for June 2023.

Building Permits

• Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,440,000.
• This is 3.7 percent below the revised May rate of 1,496,000 and is 15.3 percent below the June 2022 rate of 1,701,000.
• Single‐family authorizations in June were at a rate of 922,000; this is 2.2 percent above the revised May figure of 902,000.
• Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 467,000 in June.

Housing Starts

• Privately‐owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,434,000. This is 8.0 percent (±10.3 percent) below the revised May estimate of 1,559,000 and is 8.1 percent (±9.2 percent) below the June 2022 rate of 1,561,000.
• Single‐family housing starts in June were at a rate of 935,000; this is 7.0 percent (±11.7 percent) below the revised May figure of 1,005,000.
• The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 482,000.

Housing Completions

• Privately‐owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,468,000. This is 3.3 percent (±9.7 percent) below the revised May estimate of 1,518,000, but is 5.5 percent (±11.0 percent) above the June 2022 rate of 1,392,000. Single‐family housing completions in June were at a rate of 986,000; this is 2.8 percent (±10.2 percent) below the revised May rate of 1,014,000. The June rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 476,000.

Please note the margins of error in these reports. It’s been revision, after revision, after revision, mostly negative.

Housing Starts Single Family vs Multi-Family

Housing Starts 1959-Present

To put the rebound from 2010 in perspective, housing starts are about where they were in 1959.

That’s the strong cyclical nature of new home construction.

Another Heavily Revised Housing Starts Joke of a Report for May 2023

On June 20, I commented Another Heavily Revised Housing Starts Joke of a Report for May 2023

Last month I stated “History suggests the April rise will be revised away in May.”

Sure enough. The Commerce Department revised housing starts in April from 1,401,000 to 1,340,000. That’s a negative revision of 4.4 percent. The big jump in April is now a reported decline. So take the huge jump this month with with a heavy dose of skepticism.

Repeat Performance

There was a big jump in May from significant negative revisions in April. And now we see huge negative revisions to May.

The Census Bureau revised May from 1.631 million to 1.559 million. That’s a negative revision of 4.4 percent, matching the negative revision of 4.4 percent in April.

Gee, who couldda thunk that?

There was still a big bounce in May, assuming no more negative revisions.

These residential construction reports are a joke.

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