Retail Sales data from the Commerce Department, Real Sales are inflation adjusted.

The above chart shows the monthly change in retail sales minus the monthly change in the CPI.

Other than a surge in January half of which is a seasonal adjustment rebound from a weak December, sales have mostly floundered in real terms.

Advance Retail Sales

• Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $689.5 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 1.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above June 2022.
• The April 2023 to May 2023 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.5
• Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from May 2023, and up 0.5 percent (±0.5 percent) above last year.
• Nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year, while food services and drinking places were up 8.4 percent (±2.3 percent) from June 2022.

The key phrase is adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.

The commerce department does not factor in inflation. My chart does.

Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales Last Eight Months

• November: -1.5 Percent
• December: -0.8 Percent
• January: +2.3 Percent
• February: -1.1 Percent
• March: -1.0 Percent
• April: + 0.0 Percent
• May: +0.4 Percent
• June: +0.0 Percent

Retail Sales adjusted for inflation have only been above zero twice in the past eight months.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Since 1992

Retail Sales data from the Commerce Department, Real Sales are inflation adjusted.

Real vs Nominal Retail Sales Percent Change From Year Ago

Real vs nominal retail sales percent change from a year ago

Adjusted for inflation, retail sales are down from a year ago for five consecutive months and seven of the last eight.

The consumer is definitely weakening as rate hikes and inflation take a toll.

A 5 Percent Pay Cut is Coming for 37 Million Student Loan Borrowers

Student image courtesy of unsplash, caption mine.

Bear in mind that effectively a A 5 Percent Pay Cut is Coming for 37 Million Student Loan Borrowers

The return of student loan payments will put a crimp on retail spending for millions of borrowers.

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