Household Net Worth - The "Real" Story
Let's take a long-term view of household net worth from the latest Z.1 release. A quick glance at the complete data series shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the same quarter the stock market bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet shows a total net worth at an all-time high — 61.2.9% above the 2009 trough and 20.1% above the 2007 peak. The nominal Q1 net worth is up 0.9% from the previous quarter and 1.3% year-over-year.
But there are problems with this analysis. Over the six decades of this data series, total net worth has grown about 8125%. A linear vertical scale on the chart above is misleading because it fails to provide an accurate visual illustration of growth over time. It also gives an exaggerated dimension to the bubble that began in 2002.
But there is another more serious problem, one that has to do with the data itself rather than the method of display. Over the same time frame that net worth grew over eight-thousand-plus percent, the value of the 1950 dollar shrank to about nine cents. The Federal Reserve gives us the nominal value of total net worth, which is significantly skewed by money illusion. Here is a log scale chart adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
Here is the same chart with an exponential regression through the data. The regression helps us see the twin wealth bubbles peaking in Q1 2000 and Q1 2007, the Tech and Real Estate bubbles. The trough in real household net worth was in Q1 2009. The recovery from that trough took us above the regression early last year. This indicator is now 2.2% above trend and at a new high.
Net Worth Per Capita
The next chart gives us a more intuitive sense of real net worth. Here we've divided the inflation-adjusted series above by the Bureau of Commerce's mid-month population estimates, which have been recorded since January 1959.
We say "more intuitive" because the per-capita adjustment brings the latest data point from the Multi-Trillion stratosphere to $273,000 — an amount we can relate to on a somewhat more personal level. The latest data point is at a new record high.
Note: We've referred to this data series as "household" net worth. But, as we show in the chart titles, it also includes the net worth of nonprofit organizations. The ratio of two isn't clearly defined in the Fed data, and it obviously varies by asset and liability component.
One easy (and rather illuminating) point of comparison in the Z.1 data is the relative share of real estate at market value (B.100 lines 3 and 5). In the latest report, nonprofit organizations account about 11% of combined household and nonprofit real estate). That percentage in the quarterly data has ranged from a high of 14.5% in Q4 1974 to a low of 7.8% in Q4 2003.
Note: With today's release of the Federal Reserve's Z.1. Financial Accounts of the United States for Q1 2016, we have updated this commentary to incorporate the latest data.
Disclosure: None.
When you artificially inflate asset prices net worth rises. However, as Gary points out. The real amount of your net worth may not come anything close to what it was or ever will be again. If you have 10 bottles of water and its worth $5 and then drink 5 and 10 years later the 5 bottles are now worth $10 you are not really better off physically although financially it may appear so. Sadly, this is the case for most households in the US. If it wasn't for technology, people would readily see that people are living in smaller houses than they used to, eat less, have less kids because they can't afford them, and have less of pretty much everything. Sad but true.
Certainly this is all like GDP, it appears to be great. But we know home ownership for the middle class is down. We know rural America is being screwed. We know that main street is not the beneficiary of this. The wealth has shifted upward, which is why we have the public clamoring for fruitcakes like Trump. We get what we deserve as a nation.