With just a few trading days left, it's a pretty sure bet that the S&P 500 will close out the year above its 200-day moving average, which is something it has done for the entirety of 2024.

There have been 11 prior years since 1952 (when the NYSE went to the current five-day trading week) that the S&P closed every trading day of the year above its 200-day moving average.This essentially means the index trended higher all year with no significant corrections.For each year listed, we include how the S&P performed in the following year.As you can see at the bottom of the table, the average next-year change following these years has been a gain of just 4.6%, which is about half the historical average annual gain of 9.2%.  

The last two times the S&P traded above its 200-DMA all year were 2017 and 2021.Following each of those strong up years, the S&P took a breather in the following year.In 2018, markets trended slightly lower with a big drop to close out the year, while in 2022, the S&P entered a nasty bear market that saw a peak to trough decline of more than 25% from the start of the year through mid-October.

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