Guess What Happened The Last Time The U.S. Dollar Skyrocketed In Value Like This?

Question Ball - Public DomainOver the past decade, there has been only one other time when the value of the U.S. dollar has increased by so much in such a short period of time.  That was in mid-2008 – just before the greatest financial crash since the Great Depression.  A surging U.S. dollar also greatly contributed to the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s and the Asian financial crisis of 1997.  Today, the globe is more interconnected than ever.  Most global trade is conducted in U.S. dollars, and much of the borrowing done by emerging markets all over the planet is denominated in U.S. dollars.  When the U.S. dollar goes up dramatically, this can put a tremendous amount of financial stress on economies all around the world.  It also has the potential to greatly threaten the stability of the 65 trillion dollars in derivatives that are directly tied to the value of the U.S. dollar.  The global financial system is more vulnerable to currency movements than ever before, and history tells us that when the U.S. dollar soars the global economy tends to experience a contraction.  So the fact that the U.S. dollar has been skyrocketing lately is a very, very bad sign.

Most of the people that write about the coming economic collapse love to talk about the coming collapse of the U.S. dollar as well.

But in the initial deflationary stage of the coming financial crisis, we are likely to see the U.S. dollar actually strengthen considerably.

As I have discussed so many times before, we are going to experience deflation first, and after that deflationary phase the desperate responses by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government to that deflation will cause the inflationary panic that so many have written about.

Yes, someday the U.S. dollar will essentially be toilet paper.  But that is not in our immediate future.  What is in our immediate future is a “flight to safety” that will push the surging U.S. dollar even higher.

This is what we witnessed in 2008, and this is happening once again right now.

Just look at the chart that I have posted below.  You can see the the U.S. dollar moved upward dramatically relative to other currencies starting in mid-2008.  And toward the end of the chart you can see that the U.S. dollar is now experiencing a similar spike…

Dollar Index 2015

At the moment, almost every major currency in the world is falling relative to the U.S. dollar.

For example, this next chart shows what the euro is doing relative to the dollar.  As you can see, the euro is in the midst of a stunning decline…

Euro U.S. Dollar

Instead of focusing on the U.S. dollar, those that are looking for a harbinger of the coming financial crisis should be watching the euro.  As I discussed yesterday, analysts are telling us that if Greece leaves the eurozone the EUR/USD could fall all the way down to 0.90.  If that happens, the chart above will soon resemble a waterfall.

And of course it isn’t just the euro that is plummeting.  The yen has been crashing as well.  The following chart was recently posted on the Crux

Yen Dollar from the Crux

Unfortunately, most Americans have absolutely no idea how important all of this is.  In recent years, growing economies all over the world have borrowed gigantic piles of very cheap U.S. dollars.  But now they are faced with the prospect of repaying those debts and making interest payments using much more expensive U.S. dollars.

Investors are starting to get nervous.  At one time, investors couldn’t wait to pour money into emerging markets, but now this process is beginning to reverse.  If this turns into a panic, we are going to have one giant financial mess on our hands.

The truth is that the value of the U.S. dollar is of great importance to every nation on the face of the Earth.  The following comes from U.S. News & World Report

In the early ’80s, a bullish U.S. dollar contributed to the Latin American debt crisis, and also impacted the Asian Tiger crisis in the late ’90s. Emerging markets typically have higher growth, but carry much higher risk to investors. When the economies are doing well, foreign investors will lend money to emerging market countries by purchasing their bonds.

They also deposit money in foreign banks, which facilitates higher lending. The reason for this is simple: Bond payments and interest rates in emerging markets are much higher than in the U.S. Why deposit cash in the U.S. and earn 0.25 percent, when you could earn 6 percent in Indonesia? With the dollar strengthening, the interest payments on any bond denominated in U.S. dollars becomes more expensive.

Additionally, the deposit in the Indonesian bank may still be earning 6 percent, but that is on Indonesian rupiahs. After converting the rupiahs to U.S. dollars, the extra interest doesn’t offset the loss from the exchange. As investors get nervous, the higher interest on emerging market debt and deposits becomes less alluring, and they flee to safety. It may start slowly, but history tells us it can quickly spiral out of control.

Over the past few months, I have been repeatedly stressing that so many of the signs that we witnessed just prior to previous financial crashes are happening again.

Now you can add the skyrocketing U.S. dollar to that list.

If you have not seen my previous articles where I have discussed these things, here are some places to get started…

Guess What Happened The Last Time The Price Of Oil Crashed Like This?…

Not Just Oil: Guess What Happened The Last Time Commodity Prices Crashed Like This?…

10 Key Events That Preceded The Last Financial Crisis That Are Happening Again RIGHT NOW

The warnings signs are really starting to pile up.

When we look back at past financial crashes, there are recognizable patterns that can be identified.

Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that a large number of those patterns are unfolding once again right before our eyes.

Unfortunately, most people in this world end up believing exactly what they want to believe.

No matter how much evidence you show them, they will not accept the truth until it is too late.

Disclosure: None.

How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.
Carlisle Johnson 9 years ago Member's comment

Before it skyrocketed, it plummeted: "John Kerry"

Brad 9 years ago Member's comment

People always want to make it more complicated than it is.

I look at it in a more simplistic way.

We have more than doubled the debt in the last 6 years and the honest truth is that the USA economy would collapse tomorrow if the government was not propping it up.

It is my belief that the economy is not healing. If it was the government would not be reducing the home mortgage deposit down to 3% to drive home sales. After all it this these kinds of policy that they said brought on the last mortgage crash.

EBT record high. Labour participation rate is at a record low. We are suffering deflation but everything that I am buying is going up.

It used to be that the private sector paid the best wages. The private sector manufacturing is what build and drives a stable and realistic economy. Today the government pays better that the private sector and they create nothing.

My parents started out with an old small home. They fixed it up and sold it for a profit. They did this 4 times in their lifetime. Each time earning more equity. When they retired they had the money to build a new home that they owned and could not lose. They worked 5 and 6 days each week saving to create a secure life. People of today have completely abandoned this way of life for a high risk financed life creating self entitlement and stress.

People think that our elected officials are highly educated and will save us all. But think about this!!. How could such highly educated smart people manage to bankrupt the greatest nation on earth in such a short time. Fact is that we have left the foxes to guard the hen house and soon the hens that produce the eggs we need to eat will all be gone.

North America was founded and started from people escaping oppressive government rule. The gave a road map for prosperity and success to follow ( the constitution ). They knew what happens when the government is the fox guarding the hen house.

What is sad is that most of the people in America are now a slave to the government.

They own us lock stock and barrel. We are now the public servants of the government.

I travel and do business around the world. Here is my answer to the people that say the the USA will never fall. "Hang on" we are tipping over and this next fall is going to be hard enough landing that we will not recognize America in the aftermath.

Vanessa Dávalos Echeverría 9 years ago Member's comment

I had read about the growing weakness of US financial markets about 6 months before the actual crash of 2008. There were stories in the media about the financial hanky-panky of Wall St. banks and how a crash was inevitable. People were investing in T-bills, which can only be purchased with US dollars, driving the exchange rate sky high. How are T-Bills selling these days? Has Wall St. been reformed?

Chris Rither 9 years ago Member's comment

Not sure where you get your figures. I was on a trip around the world most of 2008 and the US dollar was falling sharply in 2008 until about august. Just look at a chart of the dollar against any currency and it goes up and down on a yearly basis. Making predictions based on past events all depends on varying circumstances and the amount of time you use. Stating that warning signs are piling up can be made at any time in history not just here. If you look at the dollar chart over the past 10 years the trend is upward. If you wait long enough the market will crash at some point... Then you can say your right, until your wrong of course....

Max Weber 9 years ago Member's comment

US Dollar has formed a good upward trend recently. It has become stronger against Euro and other popular currencies. This is a good investment opportunity to trade US dollar. As the market is moving in trends, trend trading is one of the best trading strategies to trade currencies and other instruments. I have just found a good blog about trend trading: http://trendtradingstrategy.com/ I use trend trading in my Forex trading. Following a trend can bring very high profits.

Ravi Kamath 9 years ago Member's comment

When the basis rate cut? It would give more benefit to Consumer of Bank-Loan, as long as the Reserve bank orders that, the base rate cut benefit should be given further to all Bank Consumers. Failing which the, defaulter bank be penalized, until the execution of order. The repeated failure to adhere to the Order of granting bank rate basis to consumers of Bank, after final warning within3 months. The business license to defaulter bank is called back with Penalty there on for their misdeeds.

Andrew Hook 9 years ago Member's comment

You should have a closer look to the Baltic Exchange Dry Index. Amazing

investmenttools.com/.../bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

Moon Kil Woong 9 years ago Contributor's comment

Half the people in the market don't even accept the idea of a business cycle and the inevitability of a cyclical downturn. Good luck getting them to look at an over-extrended economic cycle rationally. It's like trying to warn an overfed turkey that it's thanksgiving time and not to go feed at the trough anymore. And with zirp and QE, what a heaping high trough it is.