Grains Report - Wednesday, Sept. 22

Wheat

General Comments: Wheat was lower in all three markets once again yesterday on ideas of weak demand. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Dry weather in southern Russia as well as the northern US Great Plains and Canadian Prairies remains a supportive feature in the market although the weather has become old news. Crop size estimates in Russia have been reduced overall but were increased a little bit yesterday on better than expected Siberian Spring Wheat production. The Russian weather has been good for production in northern and western areas but is still trending dry in southern areas and into Kazakhstan. Europe is expecting top yields in some areas but less yield in others and parts of eastern Europe and northern Russia are expecting strong yields. European quality is a problem due to too much rain in some areas and not enough in others.

selective focus photo of plant

Image Source: Unsplash

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 696, 690, and 677 December, with resistance at 717, 733, and 745 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 697, 688, and 670 December, with resistance at 712, 723, and 730 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 884, 862, and 840 December, and resistance is at 909, 915, and 927 December.

Rice

General Comments: Rice closed higher, with November futures finally breaking strong resistance at 1380 and closing above that level. The first crop has been largely harvested in Texas and will soon be harvested in Louisiana, but the second crop s still in the field and is still at risk of loss in both states. Harvesting continues in Louisiana and Texas and will start to wind down in both states over the next couple of weeks. A delayed harvest is expected in Mississippi and Arkansas but a few producers are starting to harvest now. Yield reports and quality reports have been acceptable to many in Texas and are called good in Louisiana. The harvest pace is expected to be slow

Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed up with objectives of 1408 and 1436 November. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1343 November, with resistance at 1390, 1401, and 1406 November.

Corn And Oats

General Comments: Corn was lower on ideas of expanding harvest progress and weaker demand. Traders are now waiting on the harvest and yield reports but the gut slot of the harvest is still a couple of weeks away. Ideas are that the yield reports will be high and will confirm the USDA production estimates or even find better yields. However, there have been reports of diseases in Illinois fields so record production might not happen in that state. Initial yield reports have been mixed, with some lower yields reported due to disease. There are still the drought-reduced crops in the northwestern Corn Belt and northern Great Plains to be counted as well. Most of the elevators along the Mississippi are starting to export again which is good news for nearby demand. New Orleans area elevators are now reported to be about 50% open. Electricity has been restored and the elevators are transloading grain if they are not fully open yet. The weather remains a feature of the trade but is less important now as the Corn is filling kernels and starting to mature. Ideas are that Brazil's Corn production could be less than 85 million tons so reduced production estimates are expected in coming reports.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 513, 504, and 498 December, and resistance is at 528, 537, and 543 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 525, 512, and 508 December, and resistance is at 541, 564, and 570 December.

Soybeans

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on macroeconomic concerns and the approaching harvest. The debt ceiling fight in Congress and the problems with Evergrande in China are weighing on the market. People are worried about the taper away from debt by the Fed and how that will go as well. Harvest will soon be underway for Soybeans. The destruction of Gulf port facilities along the Mississippi River near New Orleans was still a factor in the trade but the elevators are coming online and exports are increasing slowly. The hurricane moved onshore in Louisiana a week ago and did extensive damage to the state, including the grain export elevators. The state also lost electrical posser in all affected areas but the power to the export elevators is being restored.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1246 and 1214 November. Support is at 1258, 1241, and 1228 November, and resistance is at 1281, 1290, and 1309 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 328.00 October, and resistance is at 341.00, 344.00, and 349.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil down with objectives of 5400 and 5210 October. Support is at 5420, 5360, and 5070 October, with resistance at 5520, 5680, and 5850 October

Canola Palm Oil

General Comments: Palm Oil closed higher today on ideas of reduced production. Export volumes were up very significantly for Malaysia for the month so far. Ideas of strong export demand, especially from India, kept futures higher today. Exports were not strong last month and the trade saw big ending stocks when MPOB released its monthly data last week. Ideas are that Palm Oil got too expensive when compared to the other vegetable oils markets. There are ideas of tight supplies due to labor problems. There are just not enough workers in the fields due to Coronavirus restrictions. Production has also been down to more than offset the export losses so prices have trended higher. Canola closed a little higher as the harvest is underway amid good conditions in the Prairies and on Chicago price action. Production ideas are down due to the extreme weather seen in these areas. It remains generally dry and warm in the Prairies. The Prairies crops are in big trouble now due to previous hot and dry weather.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 849.00, 830.00, and 823.00 November, with resistance at 888.00, 900.00, and 902.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3980 and 3940 December. Support is at 4070, 4030, and 3980 December, with resistance at 4270, 4340, and 4380 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Disclaimer: A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in ...

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