Grains Report - Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Pixabay

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 2 

Source: CME Group

               Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL    March      Mar 03, 2022               21   Feb 25, 2022

ROUGH RICE     March      Mar 03, 2022              139   Mar 01, 2022

KC HRW WHEAT   March      Mar 03, 2022                7   Feb 25, 2022

SOYBEAN        March      Mar 03, 2022                2   Dec 30, 2021

WHEAT          March      Mar 03, 2022              170   Feb 28, 2022

 

WHEAT 

General Comments:   Wheat markets were sharply higher to limit up on more reports that the Russian invasion was taking longer and was more bloody than expected. Ports are closed in Ukraine and Russian shippers and exporters are not offering in part due to sanctions but mostly due to the war and the chance to lose ships. Plus, Russian internal markets are frozen and it will take some time to get going again.. Mr. Biden said that the US would not embargo Crude Oil or agricultural products trade from the world market but the lack of Russian offers makes an embargo a mute point right now.  Higher prices seem likely down the road. Mr. Putin appears to have decided that Ukraine will be part of Russia should never been allowed to leave the Soviet Union. Ukraine appears ready to fight but will be badly outnumbered. Ukrainians have no interest in living under Russian occupation so the war could be deadly and very costly to both sides. Russia and Ukraine are both major Wheat exporters so the Wheat market could be damaged.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers in northern areas. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 1009 May. Support is at 961, 935, and 885 May, with resistance at 984, 996, and 1008 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 1035 May. Support is at 981, 966, and 917 May, with resistance at 1005, 1017, and 1029 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1121 and 1224 May.  Support is at 1029, 1018, and 988 May, and resistance is at 1063, 1075, and 1087 May.

RICE:                                                 

General Comments: Rice was sharply higher yesterday and trends are up on the daily charts as futures took out resistance areas at and near the previous contract highs. The buying was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the situation seems to get worse by the day and looks like it will take some time to resolve. The cash market is showing that domestic mill business is around everywhere in light to moderate volumes. Producer sales are reported to have been way ahead of average early in the marketing year so stocks on hand in first hands are reported to be lower than normal.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1651 and 1712 May. Support is at 1572, 1548, and 1543 May and resistance is at 1626, 15738, and 1650 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 2 

 USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    —–World Price—–      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.80         9.37       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.60         9.96       0.00

Brokens                9.39         —-       —-

CORN and OATS: 

General Comments: Corn closed sharply higher to limit up as Russia remains bogged down in its war with Ukraine. The potential loss of Ukraine exports of Corn makes the world situation tighter and could be enough to keep Corn prices trending higher for now. Russia is also a Corn exporter and no product is moving from either country at this time. Crop losses in South America are becoming more and more of a reality for the Corn market right now. The Soybeans harvest farther north is being somewhat delayed due to wet weather and this might affect planting of the Safrinha crop in Brazil. Planted area there as well as in the US is in question due to the high costs and the lack of availability of inputs for growing a successful crop.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 752 and 813 May. Support is at 716, 691, and 674 May, and resistance is at 728, 734, and 740 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 646, 626, and 613 May, and resistance is at 681, 697, and 702 May.

SOYBEANS 

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were sharply higher the war between the west, Ukraine, and Russia heated up and as Russia got into a longer war than anticipated in Ukraine. The war supported Soybeans and world vegetable oils as Russia and Ukraine both export Sunflower Oil. The two countries account for about 80% of all world Sun oil exports. The US is not real interested in curbing Russian exports as part of the sanctions but nothing is moving from either country as the companies effectively embargo themselves from doing business in either country. The world situation is still tightening as Brazil and Argentina are getting into the harvest of less Soybeans. Paraguay might import Soybeans this year from Argentina. Higher Soybeans prices are still possible due to the war and the overall supply and demand situation.

Overnight News: China bought 266,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 264,000 tons of US Soybeans. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1655, 1634, and 1597 May, and resistance is at 1697, 1724, and 1759 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 443.00, 436.00, and 429.00 May, and resistance is at 458.00 475.00, and 487.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 7950 and 8610 May. Support is at 7460, 7290, and 7000 May, with resistance at 7700, 7820, and 7940 May.

CANOLA and PALM OIL 

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on profit taking from speculators but strong demand ideas and the Russian invasion of Ukraine are still bullish factors. Demand for export was stronger last month. Demand in Malaysia could improve soon as Indonesia is expected to keep most Palm Oil at home. Indonesia is once again making moves to cut the availability of Palm Oil for export as it seeks to keep more at home for bio fuels purposes. There are still poor production conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia. Traders are mostly worried about demand from India who has been buying Soybean Oil in the US instead of Palm Oil from Malaysia and Indonesia and is also worried about China and its demand for Palm Oil for bio fuels. Canola was much higher again along with Chicago and Malaysia and on ideas of reduced Sunflower export potential from Russia and Ukraine due to the war. The market is worried about South American production as well.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 1144.00 and 1244.00 May. Support is at 1044.00, 1024.00, and 91014.00 May, with resistance at 1092.00, 1104.00, and 1116.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 7010 and 7620 May. Support is at 6470, 6350, and 6000 May, with resistance at 7060, 7180, and 7300 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast:  Mixed precipitation.  Temperatures should average near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
February	120 Mar	250 Mar	150 Mar	150 Mar
March	107 Mar	250 Mar	150 Mar	145 Mar
April	97 May	240 May	140 May	111 May
				[JS1]

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Mar 1 

     WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures for March 1, 2022.

     Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

                 Spot Price    Basis  Contract     Change

*Par Region        1032.70     -0.10    Mar 22   up 31.50

Basis: Thunder Bay    N/A       N/A       N/A        N/A

Basis: Vancouver      N/A       N/A       N/A        N/A

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin, news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 2 

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

                Offer      Change      Bid         Change   Traded

Mar             1947.50     -40.00     Unquoted    –        –

Apr/May/Jun     1707.50     +10.00     Unquoted    –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep     1427.50     -30.00     Unquoted    –        –

RBD palm olein, FOB,     Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Mar              1950.00    -40.00      Unquoted   –        –

Apr/May/Jun      1710.00    +10.00      Unquoted   –        –

Jul/Aug/Sep      1430.00    -30.00      Unquoted   –        –

RBD palm stearin, FOB,  Malaysian ports

                 Offer      Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Mar              1890.00    +10.00       Unquoted  –        –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

                 Offer       Change       Bid       Change   Traded

Mar              1780.00     +20.00       Unquoted  –        –

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer       Change        Bid        Change   Traded

Mar              7900.00     -200.00       Unquoted   –        –

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

                 Offer      Change         Bid        Change   Traded

Mar              620.00     -05.00         Unquoted   –        –

($1=MYR4.194)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 02 

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 203,609 lots, or 1.27 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                Interest

Mar-22     6,110     6,200     6,000     6,197     6,087     6,196       109       276     6,646

May-22     6,205     6,293     6,201     6,272     6,141     6,256       115    36,352    29,784

Jul-22     6,242     6,296     6,185     6,270     6,125     6,257       132   149,285   109,247

Sep-22     6,209     6,212     6,121     6,198     6,067     6,184       117     3,955     5,106

Nov-22     6,060     6,100     6,018     6,075     5,976     6,073        97    13,459    24,614

Jan-23     6,018     6,059     6,008     6,022     5,936     6,034        98       282       909

Corn

Turnover: 1,156,468 lots, or 33.48 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22     2,750     2,753     2,750     2,750     2,736     2,752        16     1,572      14,867

May-22     2,875     2,918     2,855     2,885     2,864     2,886        22   818,205   1,305,127

Jul-22     2,910     2,944     2,880     2,911     2,889     2,914        25   103,671     204,475

Sep-22     2,936     2,959     2,892     2,926     2,906     2,926        20   187,329     276,381

Nov-22     2,900     2,912     2,864     2,893     2,879     2,893        14    33,416      55,844

Jan-23     2,870     2,883     2,829     2,855     2,856     2,861         5    12,275      22,269

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,619,201 lots, or 10.17 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open

                                                  Settle                                    Interest

Mar-22         –         –         –     4,385     4,385     4,385         0           0       1,243

May-22     3,952     3,996     3,836     3,903     3,886     3,914        28   1,969,304   1,203,928

Jul-22     3,913     3,958     3,805     3,865     3,855     3,874        19     147,844     273,366

Aug-22     3,864     3,915     3,792     3,840     3,822     3,836        14      76,066     190,428

Sep-22     3,802     3,850     3,728     3,774     3,758     3,785        27     361,899     686,503

Nov-22     3,702     3,747     3,642     3,676     3,660     3,687        27      13,122      87,115

Dec-22     3,656     3,680     3,580     3,624     3,609     3,608        -1      24,122      35,306

Jan-23     3,569     3,606     3,505     3,546     3,535     3,553        18      26,844      63,346

Palm Oil

Turnover: 1,779,591 lots, or 21.63 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22    13,430    14,050    13,430    13,714    13,262    13,962       700         272     1,959  

Apr-22    13,068    13,350    12,900    13,146    12,362    13,156       794      13,853    19,190  

May-22    12,220    12,602    12,068    12,340    11,682    12,372       690   1,508,462   424,789  

Jun-22    11,550    11,824    11,370    11,620    11,134    11,646       512      45,817    75,338  

Jul-22    11,136    11,342    10,878    11,152    10,784    11,184       400      42,948    51,582  

Aug-22    10,718    10,910    10,498    10,746    10,420    10,772       352      17,857    25,336

Sep-22    10,400    10,608    10,200    10,438    10,150    10,456       306     144,692    62,252

Oct-22    10,236    10,324     9,810    10,148     9,930    10,198       268       4,670     2,974

Nov-22    10,000    10,100     9,788     9,864     9,868     9,950        82          50       571

Dec-22     9,964     9,966     9,696     9,760     9,748     9,830        82          32        98

Jan-23     9,780     9,888     9,562     9,770     9,576     9,766       190         894     1,739

Feb-23     9,782     9,840     9,502     9,502     9,452     9,630       178          44        17

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 1,488,151 lots, or 16.40 billion yuan

            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open

                                                  Settle                                  Interest

Mar-22         –         –         –    11,204    11,204    11,204         0           0       374

May-22    11,044    11,400    10,880    11,016    10,752    11,134       382   1,142,771   428,234

Jul-22    10,702    11,006    10,584    10,766    10,514    10,832       318      71,556   116,046

Aug-22    10,642    10,864    10,450    10,658    10,446    10,702       256      14,051    60,699

Sep-22    10,568    10,772    10,380    10,570    10,358    10,626       268     199,721   119,414

Nov-22    10,482    10,654    10,286    10,514    10,274    10,512       238      40,934    21,529

Dec-22    10,344    10,614    10,250    10,394    10,240    10,458       218      16,705     9,041

Jan-23    10,380    10,528    10,118    10,274    10,202    10,378       176       2,413     1,792

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.