Good News Bad News Day

After our luncheon yesterday at Trafalgar Square, we walked to the Bank DLR station. En route, we hit two demonstrations, one at India House against new immigration rules under the “Citizenship Act” discriminating against Muslims. We hit another at the Catalonia building for Catalan independence. London for centuries has been the place where foreigners demanded their rights, and for now, even with Brexit, it remains where you demonstrate. However, there were no visible French supporters of early pensions to be seen or heard nor Scottish independence advocates. Not all causes can aim for London support.

Yesterday we learned that Ramachandra Guha, the historian, has been detained by the Hindu-nationalist government trying to shut up supporters of the secular state. And in New Delhi, cellphone service has been cut off to prevent people from congregating against the Narendra Modi government measures. There is now a threat not only to the country's Muslims but also to its free exchange of ideas.

More bad news. Sweden has been the first country to exit negative interest rates despite a long tradition of using them to cool off the economy. This may spread and hurt the US as year-end funding magnifies the difficulty the Fed ran into with quarterly funding. Nordic contagion is likely.

Some good news. It looks like the impeachment trial in the US Senate will be delayed so the main focus will be not to remove Pres. Trump from office, but to stop his re-election, which doesn't depend on the votes of Republican Senators.

It also looks like Scotland can force another vote for its independence from Britain after Brexit, forced by the huge victory of the Independence Party in the general election earlier this month.

Malaysia may be happy that Goldman Sachs Group is in talks with the U.S. government to pay a $ 2 billion-dollar fine, admit guilt and agree to ongoing oversight of its compliance procedures in order to resolve a criminal investigation into its role in the corruption of the Malaysia Government 1 MBD fund. But this is hardly good news for the US.

The global impact of the Boeing decision to stop the production of its Max 737 planes is still being worked out. But it is a bug.

A couple of threats to our companies diminished. But the one against google by the UK Competition & Markets Authority looks likely to go ahead and may even threaten the Alphabet takeover of Double-Click. (One result is that Google is offering cheap ads to UK internet companies, which came to me here, although we are incorporated in NY. I'll try to cash in but may not succeed.

Oil and Gas

*Delek Group won a Jerusalem district court victory when the injunction placed on its offshore gas field startup by local mayors was removed yesterday because there was no evidence yet that it would harm air quality on-shore. However, the court will accept evidence to the contrary if it can be found starting Sunday. An Israeli court lifted on Thursday a temporary injunction that had threatened to delay production at the Leviathan gas field due to environmental concerns. The court also cited reassurances provided by government representatives as to precautions taken at the site. Delek will not be producing offshore gas until the matter of environmental damage is settled, perhaps as soon as Sunday.

Separately, DGRLY sub-DKL Investments Ltd, yesterday, signed a subscription agreement with a financial institution coordinated by BP (BP) to invest $50 mn in DKL with an automatic conversion mechanism into ordinary shares in the event of an IPO of Ithaca Ltd or one of its affiliates at a valuation of $2.5 bn. It bought the North Sea assets of Chevron to create Ithaca. The investment bears a coupon and a guaranteed yield, plus an adjustment mechanism linked for an IPO valuation. No, the terms were given.

The investment amount is redeemable in certain scenarios, including in the event of the sale of Ithaca or in the event of a breach, and in those cases, BP can convert the investment amount to marketable shares in Delek, which also has guaranteed some DKL obligations under the Subscription Agreement.

*This also boosted the price of US partner of Delek, Noble Energy of Texas, up 15.6%.

*BP plc is creating distance from its part ownership of Russian Rosneft, as new BP CEO Bernard Looney will not join the Rosneft board as his predecessor had done.

Tech and tel

*Vodafone's India JV with Idea in India was one of the cellphone companies which shut operations in New Delhi yesterday at government order to stop demonstrations, They are against making Muslims unwelcome with the new Citizenship Act. This may help VOD exit a huge tax bill being imposed by India over its money-losing operations there.

Separately, VOD yesterday said it agreed to sell its Malta operations to Monaco Telecom SAM for cash at an enterprise value of euros 250 mm ($278.2 mn). Malta will use the Vodafone name in the short term. The sale must be okayed by the Malta Communications Authority. It will close in Q1 next year.

*An Indian court ruling says that Cyrus Mistry, who was removed as head of the Tata Group two years ago, must be reinstated. Indian authorities interfere in lots of areas other countries avoid.

*Tencent crashed 3.34% yesterday in Hong Kong trading, I know not why. We sold TCEHY.

Drug dealers

*It is hard to guess how the individual mandate for Medicare will be handled by US courts after the key enforcement mechanism of Obamacare was sent back to lower courts because it may be too strict.

*Teva has successfully delayed repayment of its debt due before 2022 with new borrowings. This greatly reduces the risk of default in the coming year, and as a result, its stock rose in US markets Weds by 1.03%. However, yesterday it fell in Tel Aviv by 0.7% and this may carry over to US trading. The 2021 debt restructuring, while at a higher interest rate, is good for TEVA.

*Novo Nordisk is likelier to retain its US sales despite the White House decision to allow Canadian pharmaceuticals to be bought by Americans to cut their cost. Insulins, NVO's main product, were excluded from cross-border sales. NVO part parent Novozymes troubles may offset the insulin boost.

*Exelixis, a US share I own, yesterday, announced a collaboration agreement with Swiss Roche to evaluate cabozantinib Exelixis’ small molecule inhibitor of receptor tyrosine kinases, in combination with Atezolizumab (Tecentriq), Roche’s PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitor, in patients with locally advanced or metastatic solid tumors. The clinical trial, to be co-funded by the companies, is expected to include three-phase III pivots in advanced non-small cell lung cancer, castration-resistant prostate cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. EXEL.

Roche is also funding 2 cancer trials with Arcus Biosciences, a US small cap. Arcus therapy targets the adenosine axis to boost immune responses to cancer.

The European Commission following the advice of CHMP approved Roche's Kadcyla (trastuzumab emtansine) for after surgical treatment of adult patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer who have a residual invasive disease in the breast and/or lymph nodes after pre-surgical neoadjuvant taxane-based and HER2-targeted therapy. RHHBY.

*Galapagos was downrated by Citigroup from buy to hold. We told you first, but at a lower price. GLPG is Belgian.

Food

*Eduardo Garcia writes that Mexican bakery Grupo Bimbo, the world leader, has made José Luis Saiz its general manager for Bimbo Iberica, covering Spain and Portugal, replacing Mexican Ricardo Padilla. GRBMF gained 6.5% yesterday. Eduardo edits sentidocomun.com.mx with which we exchange news.

*Greencore of Ireland added Gordon Hardie as Non-Executive Director with effect from next February. Mr. Hardie (56) brings to the Board a wealth of executive and non-executive experience and expertise from a 30-year career in the global food and fast-moving consumer goods industries.

Mining

*Johnson Matthey rose 1.54% Wednesday because both platinum and palladium prices rose. JMPLY.

*Antofagasta, a copper producer in Chile, dropped 0.99% in US trading after rising 1.7% in London. Nancy Zambell explains why: Copper tends to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the construction season begins in late winter to early spring.” Nancy edits Wall Street's Best Investments to which I contribute articles. ANFGF.

Funds

*Because the Financial Times was not delivered to our local newsagent yesterday, I bought the Telegraph instead, and learned that since we were lured into buying Symphony International, a fund focused on Asia, last summer by that paper, it has lost 3.3%--in sterling, which has gone up against the dollar in which it is denominated. SYNNF, which is Singaporean, trades infrequently in the US but regularly in London.

(FT distribution is odd. Our local Turkish newsagent told me he calls and asks for the FT and is brushed off by them saying his copies don't all sell. The Turk says they always sell out.)

*My Lazard Total Return and Income (LGI) order did not yet go through. I keep placing it but the market in the Lazard closed-end fund is very tight.

Disclosure: None.

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Gary Anderson 4 years ago Contributor's comment

Yes, Impeachment good news for sure. Sweden's termination of the negative rates may bring bad economic news short term, but negative rates were supposed to stimulate though the result was a slowing economy. Surely negative rates have taken a toll on the Swedish financial system.