Gold Gripping, Economy Tipping


Parsing our title, Gold is gripping in completing a fourth consecutive up week. Moreover per the above Gold Scoreboard, recent weekly closes [green rectangle] continue to track those of a year ago, indeed so precisely so that were such pattern to be maintained, we'd find Gold at its All-Time High (2089) in just three weeks' time. Not so much a prediction as an observation in our maintaining our 2401 forecast high for this year. For should 2089 trade, 2401 could come (to put it articulately) "real fast". After all, Gold by the Scoreboard ought today already be up at 3864.

As well says our title, the economy is tipping in playing right into what we've been stating for months: that the recovery out of COVID "has already happened".

"But hang on, mmb, because President Biden is just now heralding the economic recovery..."

Yes, so we read, Squire. And one cannot fault the Administration for providing free money, rainbows, unicorns and solar-powered flying toasters. "Breakfast in bed, luv?" Let's straightaway go to the Economic Barometer which appears poised to tip into trouble. To the technician, at right is about as ugly a "drooping shoulder" as you'll find, with a light data set due in the new week:

Oh to be sure, not all of last week's incoming metrics were poor: June's Retail Sales actually grew (barely) after having shrunk in May. As well, July's New York State Empire Index nearly tripled over that of June to a record high 43.0: "LET'S go YANKEES", BUT: the July readings for both the Philly Fed Index and University of Michigan Sentiment Survey slipped; growth in June's Industrial Production was nearly halved; and May's Business Inventories bloated by +0.5%, their three-year average monthly change being +0.1%, (i.e. stuff wasn't movin' in May ...).

More concerning, June's annualized wholesale inflation came in at a 12.0% pace, that for retail inflation at 10.8%, along with increases (ex-Oil) for stateside imports at 8.4%, and exports 13.2%. SO to today's already familiar equation:

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