Gold At $2000?

By Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics

Monday, September 1, 2014 4:40 AM EST

QUESTION: Marty, do you think it is even possible for gold to close at $2,000 by year-end? This just seems to be the same story over and over again.

Thanks

NYGOLD-Y 1264-2013 Support

(1864 high with 1992 low)

ANSWER: Sorry, no. Here is a chart of gold back to 1264. There is not even a pattern like that, which has EVER taken place. I am really at a loss why gold analysts keep proclaiming the same thing costing people their life savings. This is not how professionals trade. We have a huge professional client base because they have learned the hard way that OPINION is nonsense and not reliable. Is this not just a process of churning out novices and causing them countless losses to line the pockets of the pros. This is seriously impacting the lives of people and that needs to be respected.

Technically, this is the primary support channel in gold. It has not changed. These forecasts for gold are entirely out of context and ignore the entire world economic trends. You cannot even argue gold rises with war for that is not even true. Gold did not rally during World War II because it was fixed. Commodities did not rise because the government put in wage and price controls. This is not a simple if then do this formula. It takes a bit more - if then do this else do that.

GC-1982 Dollars

The major resistance in gold stands at $2300. That is the old 1980 high in today’s terms adjusted for inflation. Gold has NOT been the hedge against inflation as touted. If you bought gold in 1980 at $875 and the Dow Jones Industrials at 1,000, you have about $1300 for gold and 17,000 for stocks. That cannot be excused away. Gold is NOT a hedge against inflation, it is NOT money for you cannot pay your mortgage with it unless you sell it for dollars for the definition of “money” is the acceptance by society as a medium of exchange. It is not even legal tender for you cannot pay your taxes with it without converting to dollars. It is an investment – plain and simple.

RomeDecAureus 3

Gold remains the historical hedge against government. You should never reject all other investments waiting for gold to finally rally. I retired from the gold business after 1980 BECAUSE the model project a 19 year bear market. Sorry if that is impatient. But waiting 19 years is a bit too much for me personally. NOTHING always rises. There is a cycle to everything. You need to create databases to see what is even possible – not make up shit.

Gold-Fluctuated

When gold has been money it DECLINES with inflation and rises with DEFLATION. It has never been a store of value for that would imply a communistic state where everything is fixed from assets and wages to ensure that money buys the same every day. These are simply stories for child for they cannot be real. The idea that money is a store of value is a pipe-dream for those who do not understand how to even invest so they want to prohibit everyone else from making money since they do not.

Gold-1982-1991

Gold will rally when it rises in ALL CURRENCIES – not just dollars. To even claim gold will rise to $2,000 implies the dollar will crash. What about BIG MONEY that really drives the global economy. Where does it go? Rubles, Yuan, Euros? Come on. The worst is yet to come but that is a Sovereign Debt Crisis and I hate to tell these people it is at an advanced stage in Europe and Japan. We have not even gotten a taste of it yet in the USA – only a whiff with events like Detroit. Sorry, the dollar’s rise will still center stage and the will set in motion the economic decline from the outside moving in.

Gold’s role will be completely different. We are addressing this in the upcoming special report. This is covering gold in all major currencies so you can see the change in trend and when it is really due. This report is over 300 pages.

Disclosure: None.

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RRD • 10 years ago • Member's comment

Dear Martin, Thanks for your updates, greatly appreciated. In the 1990's I attended your series of intense workshops in Vancouver BC CDA. I learned much. It was an amazing technical cyclical experience that I use each day to some degree. My Question is: Your computer charts showed Gold reaching "$10,000" spot price. Did I miss something? In 1999 thereabouts your warning was as to why the Euro will ultimately fail, economically. Did I hear Gold at $10,000 U.S. or 10,000 Euro? If the Euro was to demise, what is the total Euro denominated value of (a) debt securities and (b) derivatives directly associated? Conversion may ocurr how and to what? Mark? Franc? If my memory and chart copies are correct, Gold's forecast from your computer model 20 years ago (prior to the Euro) showed Gold spot $10,000. Derivatives were in infancy. Has the world of technical charts ever experienced anything similar to $650+ Trillion in notional derivatives? How many are Euro denominated? How may that potentially contribute to gold prices in U.S. dollar terms and/or Euro terms if the Euro were to ultimately demise (convert back to individual country currencies)? The Central Banks of each EM nation would retain purchase power if gold were accumulated prior to Euro's decline/demise? That's 28 Central Banks potentially? Do we have 15 year charts as to how gold performs not as to the direction of the U.S. dollar, rather as to the direction of the Euro (in terms of U.S. convertability)? If my memory holds well, in 1998/1999 gold was $390 thereabouts. The Euro has increased 30% and Gold has increased 300%. If the Euro were to decline 30% would gold decline 300%? When a currency depreciates, spirals downward, the value of gold in U.S. $ terms usually maintains relatively constant in comparison (as to other assets denominated in local currency). Gold is a usually a currency hedge as to a declining currency? If I buy my gold security/derivative product in Euro, may I sell it in $U.S.? If I buy gold bars in Euro, store the bars, may I sell in $U.S.? Or Yen? Or RMB? The convertabilty of physical gold into any currency allows for such gold holders to be done with currency forecasting? The U.S. dollar rises and gold falls. The Euro falls and Euro denominated gold rises? What then is Gold's price in Euro if the Euro were to demise? If the Euro were to substantially decline or demise, carry trades from Euro priced Gold to U.S. dollar could push U.S. spot gold prices up along with a rising U.S. dollar? Help me wrap my thinking around the value of gold, not as a hedge against inflation, rather a hedge against currency depreciation/deflation, currency depreciation/inflation, currency depreciation/stagflation and the possibility of Euro convertability (Euro demise). Thank you. And 20 years ago did your computer read 10,000 gold in some currency? RR.

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