From Atlanta Fed today:

Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed 3/26/2025.

What’s this mean for the trajectory of GDP? Note GS at 1.3%, while NY Fed (last Friday) at 1.72%

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 2: GDP (black), GDPNow of 3/26 (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports(pink square), NY Fed (blue square), Goldman Sachs (inverted green triangle), Survey of Professional Forecasters (light blue), all in billion Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA, Atlanta Fed, Philadelphia Fed, NY Fed, Goldman Sachs and authors calculations.

In normal times, with 34 days to the advance release, one would put greater weight on GDPNow than the (pre-Covid) NY Fed nowcast, or Bloomberg consensus. (The NY Fed nowcast underwent substantial revision during the pandemic.)

Source: Luzzetti, et al. “Tracking the GDP trackers,” Deutsche Bank US Economic Perspectives, 24 July 2019.

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