Atlanta Fed nowcast shows 4.6% q/q AR growth in GDP. Interestingly, this does not take GDP back to pre-“Liberation Day” trend.

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Figure 1: GDP (black, left log scale), May SPF forecast (tan, left log scale), GDPNow of 6/2 (light blue square, left log square), Goldman Sachs of 6/3 (inverted red triangle, left log scale), final sales to domestic private purchasers (light blue square, right log scale), (inverted red triangle, right log scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations).

Note Goldman Sachs is somewhat more pessimistic, particularly with respect to “core GDP” (final sales to private domestic purchases).

Even with the upgrade, the Atlanta Fed nowcast for equipment investment — which one would think would be very sensitive to uncertainty in general — has decelerated substantially.

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Figure 2: Trade Policy Uncertainty (light blue, left scale), equipment investment (bold black, right log scale), bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: Iacoviello, BEA 2025Q1 second release.

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