From GDP Q1 3rd release and nowcasts plus tracking. GDPNow is down on personal income and spending release, advanced economic indicators, as well as the Q1 3rd release.

Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), NY Fed (green triangle), St. Louis News nowcast (inverted red triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, and author’s calculations.

Given the distortions attendant with tariff front-loading and inventory tracking, it pays to think about aggregate demand (in principle measured by final sales), or trend aggregate demand (in principle measured sales to domestic purchasers, so consumption and fixed investment. This is shown in Figure 2, along with nowcast from GDPNow and Goldman Sachs tracking.

Figure 2: Final sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black), May SPF median (tan line), GDPNow (sky blue square), Goldman Sachs (blue square), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 3rd release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, and author’s calculations.

Clearly, there is deceleration in this measure, and nowcasted slowing. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs thinks final sales to private domestic purchasers will be flat this quarter.

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