Where “core” GDP (per Furman) is final sales to private domestic purchasers.

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Figure 1: GDP (black), SPF May median (tan), GDPNow of 5/30 (blue square), GS of 5/30 (red inverted triangle), and NY Fed of 5/30 (light green triangle). Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed, Philadelphia Fed, and author’s calculations.

FInal sales to private domestic purchasers, which Furman has tagged as a better indicator of momentum in the economy than either final sales or GDP, is nowcasted to grow at roughly the same pace in Q2, as shown in Figure 2.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 2: FInal sales to private domestic purchasers (bold black) and GDPNow of 5/30 (blue square), both in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Source: BEA 2025Q1 second release, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.

GDPNow thus suggests continued demand growth in 2025Q2.

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