FT-Booth GDP Forecast For 2025: 1.6%
That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September.
(Click on image to enlarge)
FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September survey median (red triangle), 10/90 percentile interval (gray +), GDPNow of 9/1 (light blue square), and 2023-24 trend (chartreuse), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2025q2 3rd release/annual benchmark revision, FT-Booth Seeptember survey, Atlanta Fed, and author’s calculations.
The median survey response of 1.6% is just below my estimate of 1.7%. While the current GDPNow nowcast is at the upper end of the 10/90 percentile interval, the St. Louis Fed’s at essentially zero growth (not shown) is below the 10th percentile (see this post).
More By This Author:
Nowcasting Private NFP For SeptemberSeptember Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According To ADP
Conference Board: “A Sharp Deterioration In Consumers’ Views Of The Current Economic Situation Weighed On Confidence”
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