Finally Some Real Data…For November

The November figures demonstrate the rising tide, the escalating negativity that was built up before December’s market shock.

Unlike the payroll reports, the TIC data even though it’s two months behind them gives us a much better, far more accurate sense of things. Like the payroll reports, there isn’t anything here that is unexpected. It’s just a very different story than the one blanketing mainstream commentary.

Fed pause because an extremely robust economy can’t stand fed funds @ 240 bps? Yeah, no way. Global downturn forming two Decembers ago as the offshore monetary noose tightened? That’s more like it.

The problem, due to Economics, is that no one knows how to read these numbers. That’s not surprising; the discipline refuses to recognize offshore money so it stands to reason Economists, therefore, those in the media would have so much trouble interpreting what goes into, and comes out of, offshore monetary places. It’s just one of life’s little quirks how the Treasury Department puts this report together in spite of that.

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Danny Straus 10 months ago Member's comment

Thank you for posting the data. As the trade war has been outbroken, if China slows its purchases of US Treasuries and then decides to steadily reduce its holdings by using a normal drawdown strategy...that inevitably will drive down the price of the bonds. Now that hurts their existing of US currency. Clearly, China didn't successfully work out well to engage with EU in terms of having more benefits against the US. In fact, the threat of "trade war" actually bolster the price of US treasuries today, not depressed by massive selling.