Finally Seeing Some Fear
Last weekend I noted that I wasn’t seeing the extreme levels of bearishness on the Twitter stream for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that I’d expect with the size of the price decline. As a result, I expected to see a bit more decline before a low was made. Now I’m starting to see some signs of fear and capitulation. As a result, I’m looking for a short term low in the near future. The first sign of capitulation comes from 7 day momentum. It is now painting the most oversold reading in three years.
The next thing I’m seeing is a lot of tweets calling for lower prices. Traders are now showing some real fear. Price targets for SPX are mostly in a range from 1700 to 1950, with the largest number at 1820. The tweets calling for 1820 come from multiple trading styles. I’m seeing Elliott Wave, trend lines, Fibonacci retracements, the October 2014 lows, etc. as a reason for the price target. The various styles add weight to that level as major support. A lot of buyers will take a chance at that level…but abandon their positions quickly if it can’t hold.
It is a time to be cautious, because major support (and resistance) levels often act as a magnet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick flush to 1820 if yesterday’s lows break.
Disclosure: None.
The correction isn't that big from a historic perspective and there was little panic or fear which is good. We need to be able to take downside corrections in stride and this appears to be just one of them. The bigger issue is if the US is looking at a stalling of its economy and if China will stall as well. Without these two the global economy looks to be in dire need of growth from anywhere.
The current sell off is mainly due to weak exports from China to the US more than China slowing itself. If it does lead to a collapse of Chinese growth expect further turmoil. The big question is why is the US import and export data looking so bad when people are claiming the US economy is getting stronger. Something doesn't add up and the selloff is just a reflection of the fact there is something wrong in the US data.