Durable goods new orders data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Please consider the Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments Inventories and Orders. 

• New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $268.4 billion. This followed a 5.0 percent January decrease. 
• Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. 
• Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. 
• Transportation equipment, also down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $2.6 billion or 2.8 percent to $89.4 billion.

Visible Weakness

Transportation orders are extremely volatile, especially aircraft orders that have huge lead times. Also, a covid-related chip shortage disrupted motor vehicles and parts more than other sectors. More recently, a Biden EV push and the Inflation Reduction Act skewed things in the other direction.

Excluding transportation, the weakness is visible. On average, new orders excluding transportation have been flat to declining for about seven months.

New orders are not adjusted for inflation. That makes the weakness more pronounced than it looks.

Durable Goods New Orders Percent Change From Year Ago

Durable goods new orders data from Census Department, chart by Mish

Year-over-year durable goods are up 1.0 percent. Excluding transportation, orders are up 1.2 percent. 

Year-over-year the CPI was up 6.0 percent. Thus, on an inflation-adjusted basis, durable goods new orders are down 5.0 percent from a year ago.

The weakness in housing explains the trends. Think appliances, cabinets, washers and dryers, etc.

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