Data from CME FedWatch chart by Mish

I created the above chart in Excel by creating a weighted average of CME FedWatch interest rates expectations on those select dates. 

The data reflects how speculators and hedgers are currently positioned. 

March 7 vs March 20

• The December projection on March 7 was roughly 5.5 percent 
• The December projection on March 24 is roughly 4.0 percent 

That's a change of six quarter-point moves, one for each meeting between now and December.

What's the Message?

1. Has inflation been cured?
2. Soft landing?
3. Bank failures spread forcing the Fed to act?
4. Global credit contraction? 

There is a huge difference between (1 or 2) and (3 or 4).

In retrospect, there is option 5. The betters and hedgers have gone mad. 

In Fed Q&A Jerome Powell Wonders "How Did Bank Failures Happen?"

Meanwhile, In Fed Q&A Jerome Powell Wonders "How Did Bank Failures Happen?"

I outline 12 mistakes the Fed has made. 

I suspect Powell understands at least some of them but he cannot or does not want to say "The Fed made many mistakes" for political reasons. 

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