Dow Industrial Average Surges As Semiconductors Plunge

Ugly day driven by tech declines has stalled broader rallies, but not killed them. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to act oblivious and went against what I thought might have been straight forward reversal off resistance. Whether DeepSeek proves to be a catalyst for a larger decline won't be clear until support breaks across impacted indices.

The good news is the Dow Jones posted a solid day and is on its way to challenge 45.1K highs. Volume climbed to register as accumulation. Technicals are solidly net positive.


The Semiconductor Index headed sharply in the other direction. The warning signs of a reversal came last week on the inverse hammer at resistance, then Friday's losses (the whisper figure), before today's slice through lead moving averages. Technicals are negative but not net bearish.


For the S&P we have a new 'bull trap' on higher volume distribution. Today's selling coincided with a new 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. On 'bull traps' indices typically retrace back to prior trading range support, which for the S&P is 5,775.


The Russell 2000 (IWM) didn't escape the selling, but it wasn't as badly hit as peer indices. Volume registered as distribution but the index remained close enough to its 50-day MA to deliver a breakout in the coming days.


The Nasdaq reversed from converged trend and horizontal resistance, undercutting the 50-day MA in the process. Unlike other indices, volume didn't climb to register as distribution. Technicals are mixed with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI.


From an economic/business perspective, the vulnerabilities of the U.S. tech sector and energy sector to Chinese developments in the field of AI and sustainable energy is not one the current administration is equipped to address. Price leads economics, so the next few months will give us an idea as to where market confidence lies. Watch those support levels.


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