Do You See What I See?

My friend’s garden illustrates the contents of my head concerning the market. Spectacular indeed, with many flowers blooming, some still budding, bees harmoniously feeding and dark clouds forming on the horizon.

Last night we looked beyond the Modern Family to Nasdaq.

Yesterday’s potential reversal pattern in its current Bearish phase confirmed today. QQQs ran up to the January 13^th high the day it opened higher and then proceeded to tank. It also ran slightly above last Friday’s high at 106.50.

That makes the market picture equally paradoxical. A reversal pattern confirmed in the Russell 2000 as well. After Tuesday’s inside day pattern, it gapped higher right out of the gate.

Similar to NASDAQ, IWM finds itself staring at significant resistance from both the declining 10 and 50 daily moving averages. That means this rally, after ignoring all the fear that was soooo two days ago, must muster up enough juice to get IWM over the 113.50 area.

The Retail Sector (XRT), another confirmed reversal pattern yet sitting in a Bearish Phase, may just be the rally to short. Sure, it may also have more upside, but it’s an uphill battle for sure.

Then, the Regional Banks Sector (KRE), which as of yesterday was trading in a Distribution phase, today had a Death Cross. With KRE now in a Bearish Phase on the daily charts, it’s the weekly pattern that matters most. The 200 week moving average, which it broke earlier this week, sits right above today’s high.

Even Sister Semiconductors (SMH), our Bullish sibling, stopped right below the fast or 10 day moving average. Therefore, it behooves us to look at the weakest sector Biotechnology (IBB), or the Big Brother of speculative investors.

With IBB back above the trend line it broke down from and above the 200 week moving average, maybe some of that record level money supply is finally convinced that bad news is good news.

The Transportation (IYT) sector is also heading for a Death Cross. However, just like its Prodigal Brother KRE, it’s the 200 week moving average sitting right over its head that matters most by the end of this week. A close above that by Friday will have us this long July 4^th weekend, outside smelling the flowers rather than inside waiting for the storm to pass.

S&P 500 (SPY) 207.70 the 50 DMA resistance. Where does the fun end? If this breaks 203.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Tomorrow ends June. The monthly moving average to clear and close above is 115.75. If not, I take that as some weakness

Dow (DIA) 177.50 overhead 50 DMA. 175 support and pivotal

Nasdaq (QQQ) 106.50 a huge overhead resistance area and under 104.50 trouble

XLF (Financials) Stopped at resistance with 21.65 a key area to hold by Friday’s close

KRE (Regional Banks) 37.60 the 200-week MA

SMH (Semiconductors) 54.80 big support at the 50 DMA

IYT (Transportation) 132.70 the 200 WMA to hold above

IBB (Biotechnology) 253 the 200 week moving average now pivotal

XRT (Retail) 42.05 the 200 WMA

IYR (Real Estate) Now running into January 2015 highs resistance areas. Interesting

ITB (US Home Construction) Back to unconfirmed Bullish Phase

GLD (Gold Trust) 125 nearest support. Most interesting to me is how it ends the week relative to the 200 WMA at 126.05

SLV (Silver) Over 17-hallelujah! Now support

GDX (Gold Miners) 27.71 the high to clear

USO (US Oil Fund) Must clear the 50 WMA at 12.01

OIH (Oil Services) I get more bullish when I look at the differing energy related sectors than at oil itself

UNG (US NatGas Fund) 8.20 the 200 DMA to defend

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Lack of volume kept me away yesterday and today with 20.00 key support

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) It seems like a top but will give it another day to say for sure

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.05 the 200 DMA resistance which failed perfectly. 24.70 support