Daily Stock Analysis: Carlyle Secured Lending

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc, bearing the ticker symbol (CGBD), has never been reviewed any of my previous dog of the week portfolios. This, is the very first mention of Carlyle in my Viking portfolio.

Carlyle SL

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc focuses on providing directly originated, financing solutions across the capital structure, with a focus on senior secured lending to middle-market companies primarily located in the United States.

As A Buisness Development Company, CGBD’s investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation primarily through debt investments in U.S. middle-market companies.

Conducting investment activities, CGBD draws upon the significant scale and resources of Carlyle.

Carlyle (CG) is a global investment firm with deep industry expertise that deploys private capital across three business segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit and Global Investment Solutions. With $373 billion of assets under management (“AUM”) as of December 31, 2022, Carlyle employed nearly 2,100 employees, including more than 770 investment professionals in 29 offices across five continents, and serves more than 2,900 active carry fund investors from 88 countries.

The firm is headquartered in New York, New York.

Three key data points gauge Carlyle Secured Lending or any dividend-paying firm. They are:

(1) Price

(2) Dividends

(3) Returns

Those three basic keys best tell whether any company has made, is making, and will make money.

CGBD Price

CGBD’s price per share was $13.56 at Wednesday’s market close. In the past year, CGBD share price fell from $14.35 to its current $13.56 or 5.5%.

If CGBD’s stock trades in the range of $10.00 to $16.00 this next year, its recent $13.56 share price might rise to $15.00 by next year. It could go down about the same amount.

My upside estimate of  $1.44 is the same target forecast by five analysts tracking the stock for brokers.

CGBD Dividend

CGBD’s recent $0.44 Q dividend is estimated by YCharts to total $1.50 for the year per share yielding 11%.

CGBD Returns

Adding the $1.50 projected annual dividend to my $1.44 estimated price upside, reveals a $2.94 potential gross gain per share for the coming year.

At Monday’s $13.56 closing price, a little over $1000 would buy 74 shares.

A $10 broker fee (if charged), paid half at purchase and half at sale, might cost us about $0.14 per share.

Subtract that maybe $0.14 brokerage cost from my estimated $2.94 gross gain estimate makes a net amount of $2.80 X 74 shares = $207.20 or a 20% net gain.

In the next year our $1K investment in shares of CGBD could generate about $110.60 in dividends. Furthermore, a single share of CGBD at Wednesday’s $13.56 price is over 8 times less than the income estimated from $1000.00 invested.

So, by my dogcatcher ideal, this a time to consider CGBD based on its estimated dividends for 2023. The dividend from $1k invested is 8.16 times greater than CGBD’s single-share price. Consider yourself alerted.

All of the estimates above are speculation based on the past history of investment in shares of Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. Only time and money invested in this stock will determine its future market value.

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Disclaimer:  This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a ...

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