CPI Inflation At Annual Rates, Using July Nowcast
From Cleveland Fed; and compared to Bloomberg consensus.
Figure 1: Annualized CPI inflation, year-on-year (bold black), quarter-on-quarter (tan), month-on-month (green), instantaneous per Eeckhout, T=12, a=4 (bold red) and instantaneous using Bloomberg consensus. Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed (accessed 8/9/2023), Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
Note that year-on-year CPI inflation will have a bump up if Cleveland Fed’s nowcast of 0.4% m/m headline inflation proves right. So too will instantaneous (3.5% annual rate). However, the Bloomberg consensus is for 0.2%, which means in a slightly declining instantaneous inflation rate (2.4% annual rate).
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