Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of Aug 5, 2025.

10-year note: Currently net short 959.8k, up 63.2k.

Non-commercials aggressively added to their net shorts in 10-year note futures, raising their holdings by seven percent to 959,834 contracts – a 17-week high. In fact, this was the second lowest peak since registering a record 1.14 million last October, followed by April’s 1.08 million.

These traders are oozing confidence, betting the 10-year yield is headed higher (price and yield move inverse to each other). This week, rates indeed rallied, up seven basis points to 4.29 percent, with a low of 4.19 percent on Tuesday; last Friday, rates ticked 4.22 percent intraday. There is strong horizontal support at low-4.2s, and it is holding.

If the 10-year rallies further – likely in the sessions ahead – non-commercials will face a test on two spots – 4.5 percent, which represents trendline resistance from this January’s high, and 4.7 percent, which goes back to October 2023 when the 10-year peaked at five percent. The latter resistance in particular is unlikely to yield anytime soon.

30-year bond: Currently net short 110.4k, down 363.

Major US economic releases for next week are as follows.

The NFIB optimism index (July) and the consumer price index (July) are on tap for Tuesday.

Small-business optimism in June dropped two-tenths of a point month-over-month to 98.6 – a two-month low.

In the 12 months to June, headline and core consumer prices increased 2.7 percent and 2.9 percent respectively – both at four-month highs. April’s 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent were the lowest in 50 and 49 months, in that order. In June and September of 2022, they respectively reached four-decade highs of 9.1 percent and 6.6 percent.

Thursday brings the producer price index (July). Headline and core wholesale prices increased 2.3 percent and 2.5 percent respectively in June from a year ago.

Retail sales (July), industrial production (July) and University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (August, preliminary) are scheduled for Friday.

June retail sales increased 0.6 percent m/m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $720.1 billion. March’s $722.6 billion set a record.

Capacity utilization edged up 0.2 percent in June to 77.6 percent. This was a three-month high.

In July, consumer sentiment rose one point m/m to 61.7 – a five-month high.

WTI crude oil: Currently net long 139.5k, up 6.1k.

Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude struggled to stay above the 200-day moving average ($67.86). This week began with Monday’s breach of the 50-day ($66.69), with the average then offering resistance on Wednesday. When it was all said and done, crucial horizontal support at $65-$66 was compromised. The crude closed the week down 5.9 percent to $63.35/barrel. This was the third down week in four; last week was positive, but finished with a shooting star, with a weekly high of $70.51.

Now that oil bears have pushed the price under $65-$66, odds favor lower prices in the sessions/weeks ahead. In April, WTI went from $72.28 on the 2^nd to $56.06 on the 9^th; this low is a must-hold for the bulls.

In the meantime, US crude production in the week to August 1^st decreased 30,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.284 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6^th last year. Crude imports dropped as well, down 174,000 b/d to six mb/d. As did stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates, which respectively declined three million barrels, 1.3 million barrels and 565,000 barrels to 423.7 million barrels, 227.1 million barrels and 113 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased 150 basis points to 96.9 percent.

E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 139.6k, down 23.5k.

Equity bears had a big opportunity this week to put the bulls on the defensive, but they couldn’t quite pull it off. This week’s 2.4-percent rally followed a drop of the same magnitude last week when a bearish engulfing candle formed, but it needed confirmation. Bulls made sure that didn’t happen right from the start, with Monday filling last Friday’s gap and 6300 drawing bids particularly Tuesday through Thursday. In the end, the S&P 500 closed at 6389.

A breakout can occur at 6390s. The all-time intraday high of 6427 was posted on 31 July. In the event downside pressure develops in the sessions ahead, 6100s is important; in late June, the large cap index broke out of this price point, and a genuine retest is yet to occur. This is a make-or-break for the bulls.

Euro: Currently net long 116k, down 7.4k.

At Tuesday’s intraday low of $1.1528, the euro would have breached $1.16, but the bulls fought back hard, rallying the currency 0.5 percent for the week to $1.1642.

That said, the euro remains bound by trendline resistance from July’s high when it tagged $1.183 on the 1^st. That falling trendline extends to $1.175; this week, all the euro could manage was an intraday print of $1.1699 on Thursday. Early this year, it bottomed around $1.02s.

A decisive breach of $1.16 should open the door toward $1.12, which the currency broke out of in April and where it had faced decent resistance last August and September.

Gold: Currently net long 237.1k, up 13.5k.

As things stand, gold is not certain about which way it wants to go. Since the metal reached a fresh all-time high of $3,500 on 22 April, it has made several lower highs. Concurrently, it has made higher lows since mid-May when it ticked $3,121 intraday. As a result, a symmetrical triangle has been formed. These triangles tend to be neutral but can also represent a continuation pattern, in which case the metal wants higher prices. The metal had been rallying since it ticked $2,608 on December 30.

Since the April peak, $3,200 has repeatedly found buyers. This week, gold bugs defended the 50-day ($3,349) on both Monday and Tuesday, ending the week up one percent to $3,397/ounce.

Whichever way the prevailing consolidation resolves, the trend likely continues, with a bias to the upside. The upper trendline in question gets tested at $3,430.

Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 33.8k, down 1.1k.

Last Friday, when July’s weaker-than-expected jobs report came out along with sharp downward revisions for May and June, the Nasdaq 100 gapped down to tag 22674 intraday, with a fresh high of 23589 in the prior session. No worries! This week, tech bulls took things under control and rallied the index 3.7 percent to 23611, with a new intraday high of 23619. Bears who were hoping to cash in on last week’s bearish engulfing candle came up short. Nearest support at 22900s which was lost last Friday was recaptured as early as Monday this week.

The Nasdaq 100, having bottomed at 16542 on 7 April, has come a long way and remains overbought. Since they failed to convert the opportunity that came their way, bears just will have to wait for another day.

Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 93.7k, up 12.9k.

Following last week’s 4.2-percent tumble, the Russell 2000 rallied 2.4 percent this week, which was just enough to push the index past 2200 – 2218, to be precise.

Small-cap bulls faced rejection at 2300 for several weeks before the index came under decent pressure last week to tag 2143 on the 1^st. There is major horizontal support at 2100, which is intact but has yet to be genuinely tested since June.

Unlike large-cap indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, which are both at/near new highs, the Russell 2000 remains way below last November’s intraday high of 2466, which barely edged past the prior high of 2459 from November 2021.

US Dollar Index: Currently net short 7k, up 2.9k.

The US dollar index is searching for direction. Last Friday, it tagged 100.26 intraday but only to reverse hard to end the session in the red. The significance of 100-101 goes back some four decades.

That rejection held this week, as the index gave back 0.9 percent to 98.26, which is barely above the 50-day at 98.21. It can continue to come under pressure in the sessions ahead, and there are two levels to watch closely. On 1 July, the index bottomed at 96.38, which has now gained in significance. Then, around 97.50 lies trendline support from that low. Most importantly, around 97 lies crucial trendline support going back to the lows of April and May of 2011.

VIX: Currently net short 86.5k, up 19.3k.

From last Friday’s intraday high of 21.90 to this Friday’s close of 15.15, it will be no exaggeration to say that volatility bulls really took it on the chin this week. Ahead lies a crucial test.

In January and February this year, VIX traded in 14.50s-14.70s for several sessions before turning up. This was again the case last Friday, with a few sub-15 readings before that. The bottom line is that this support needs to hold. Non-commercials, who are sitting on net shorts that are close to three-year highs, are probably betting that VIX will breach this support. Should this not be the case and they end up covering, the volatility index is destined to come under upward pressure.

Thanks for reading! 

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