As was expected this week, jobless claims data deteriorated with seasonally adjusted claims rising to 220K from 216K. However, that was better than expectations which were calling for claims to rise by another 5K up to 225K. As shown below, claims continue to sit at the low end of the past several months range, indicating a still healthy labor market.

At the moment, claims prior to seasonal adjustment are at an interesting point of the year. Unadjusted claims totaled 174.5K this week. That is only a couple thousand claims higher than last year and near the slightly lower readings from 2018 and 2019. Overall, those remain some of the strongest readings on record when comparing the like weeks of the year. Additionally, we would note that claims are likely at or near their seasonal low. Historically, the current week of the year has been the annual low a quarter of the time (that being the case in 2018 and 2019) whereas the following week has marked the low another 35.7% of the time. In other words, as we have frequently mentioned in recent weeks, seasonal tailwinds will begin to shift to headwinds in the coming weeks.

Seasonally adjusted continuing claims likewise came in below expectations this week, rising to 1.688 million compared to forecasts of 1.69 million. Again like initial claims, continuing claims are far from worrisome as they sit at historically strong levels, however, the past few months downtrend in claims has begun to bottom out as it has been eight weeks since the last near term low.

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