Both Michigan Sentiment and CB Confidence declined in October.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations.

Regarding the demographic characteristics of the responses, I found this the most interesting.

… By income, confidence fell for consumers making less than $75K a year, but improved for most of the income groups making more than $75K, with the largest increase among those earning over $200K. …By partisan affiliation, confidence improved among Independents, declined among Democrats, and was also slightly down among Republicans.

If optimism remains higher among higher income groups, then the likelihood that consumption growth remains positive is higher.

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