Commitment Of Traders, Futures Positions Of Non-Commercials

Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 16, 2019.

10-year noteCurrently net short 275.7k, up 14.1k.

The support-turned-resistance at 2.62 percent was tested – unsuccessfully – Wednesday when the 10-year yield (2.56 percent) rallied to 2.61 percent.  This is a crucial level going back a decade.  Thursday, yields fell three basis points – now below the 50-day (2.59 percent).  Bond bears got no help from Thursday’s better-than-expected retail sales data for March.

Prior to this, the 10-year bottomed at 2.36 percent on March 27.  For now, the daily wants to go lower.  In the right circumstances for bond bulls, non-commercials will begin to cover their net shorts, which are nowhere as high as last September’s record, but decent enough to potentially put downward pressure on yields.

30-year bondCurrently net short 24.6k, down 743.

Major economic releases next week are as follows.

  • Existing home sales for March are due out Monday.  Sales jumped 11.8 percent month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.51 million units.  In November 2017, sales reached a cycle high 5.72 million units.
  • March’s new home sales are on tap Tuesday.  February was up 4.9 percent m/m to 667,000 units (SAAR).  A cycle high 712,000 units was reached in November 2017.
  • Thursday brings durable goods for March.  February orders for non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft – proxy for business capex plans – were up 2.6 percent year-over-year.  Orders have softened since last July’s 8.8-percent pace.
  • On Friday, 1Q real GDP (first estimate) and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index (April, final) come out.                              - Real GDP grew 2.2 percent in 4Q18, having decelerated from 4.2 percent in 2Q and 3.4 percent in 3Q.  As of Thursday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts 1Q growth of 2.8 percent.                                                                                                                                    - Preliminarily, consumer sentiment in April fell 1.5 points m/m to 96.9.  The 101.4 reading in March last year was the highest since January 2004.
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