So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the slow employment recovery from the 2001 recession. On the other hand, preliminary benchmark NFP, and NFP estimated using QCEW data continue to crawl upward.

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Figure 1: Preliminary benchmark implied NFP (tan), preliminary benchmark implied using QCEW seasonally adjusted data by author (blue), ADP private employment plus BLS preliminary benchmark government employment (red), and CPS employment adjusted to NFP concept, 3 month centered moving average (green), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS, and author’s calculations. 

On a side note, BLS Director nominee EJ Antoni’s measure of “sustainable” employment (private employment ex-health and ex-social services) has been declining since December 2024 (using preliminary benchmark figures).

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Figure 2: Private NFP minus health care and social services employment (tan), and according to implied preliminary benchmark (blue), all in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS via FRED, BLS and author’s calculations.

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