CheapOair, Seeking Alpha, And Other Questions

A question: If he wandered off-base in the Afghanistan war zone without permission, how did Bergdahl make sergeant? Critics of the Administration's deal to get him released after 5 years of captivity by the Taliban need to address how a supposed disloyal soldier got promoted by our US military. 

Another (with apologies to Dickens): Is it a far better thing that I do than I have ever done?

BNP Paribas' Swiss-based COO with an aristo name, George Chodron de Courcel, 64, appears to be ready to sacrifice himself to settle with US prosecutions over money laundering on behalf of rogue regimes Iran, Cuba, and Sudan. As with A Tale of Two Cities, the action was not done in Paris in US$s but via the Swiss arm of the French bank.

This might protect BNP CEO Baudouin Prot, who sounds more like a Sans-Culotte, from the guillotine.

 A 3rd query: Did European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi really break new ground with his under-water interest rate offer to banks yesterday?

Missing in news articles about the ECB negative interest rate program is recollection that Swiss banks also had to pay to deposit their cash with the Swiss National Bank (their CB) during crises in the last century. Then a too-high Swiss Franc threatened the country's exports of chocolate and Swatches. CB intervention to force down interest and exchange rates down is not unprecedented. It was also tried more recently by Denmark with a tax on deposits.

Moreover Super-Mario stopped short (so far) from trying quantitative easing on the Anglo-US model, according to Bloomberg and other critics. All he did was hint that QE could be rolled out if the latest measures fail to work. QE drives down interest rate spreads and encourages bankers' animal spirits. ECB buying asset-backed securities will have modest impact as Euroland banks don't use ABS's much. I think the securitization of euros 800 bn of bank loans to the “real economy” with the long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) can work. But failing to sop up non-performing loans with a QE initiative was a political decision, and probably a wrong one.

 More follows from Mexico to Mongolia to Myanmar, with some stops in between in Canada, Italy, Spain, Britain, Brazil, China, Norway and The Netherlands.

*Teva was upped to a buy for a hold by respected Argus Research, with a target price of $58.

Now some of our wilder fund investments are in focus today:

*Fibra Uno may be benefiting from investments by Cohen & Steers Global Real Estate Fund (reported on yesterday) as the FBASF stock rose 2.54%. Mexican growth has been slowing for the past 15 months despite reformist by Pres. Enrique Peña Nieto which have not all succeeded.

Eduardo Garcia wrote earlier this week in www.sentidocomun.co.mx about new worries over Mexican growth hurting the launch of new Mexican REITs, called Fibras. He noted that desperately-needed liberalization laws covering telecoms and energy haven't yet been approved by Congress. Mexico needs to attract more steady foreign private capital to achieve the vigorous growth it people need. Worries over legislative obstacles have weighed down the Bolsa, the stock market, off 1.4% to date in 2014.

*Livio Felice wrote on www.seekingalpha.com that Bank of Nova Scotia may use the proceeds of its surprise sale of CI Financial (CIFAF) now in process by buying INGor Credito Familiar in Mexico or another bank.

Mr Felice lives in Naples, Italy and I have no idea how he got this information. ING Mexico runs pension funds (Afores) but no longer is a bank. Credito Familiar was bought by Scotiabank late in 2012 from Banamex, the now disgraced arm of Citi. I was banned by www.seekingalpha.com for failing to share her source with the editors (a no-no for journalists). I wonder how Mr. Felice managed to get his article posted without citing sources or knowing what he is talking about.

 *Mongolia Growth Group borrowed money in local currency to buy distressed assets in April, the fund reported yesterday. The local money is now called the tughrik; the old name was togrog. They are the same. Conservative MNGGF says it wants to be moderately leveraged and will sell non-core assets to pay back the loan, as well as possibly refinancing it with cheaper overseas borrowing. No further details were provided.

*Our other wild frontier market fund, Singapore-listed Yoma Strategic Holdings, was written up in last week's Economist. YMAIF closed the week of its renown with its S$ share down to 80 cents from 80.5 cents, perhaps because the British magazine mentioned that its animator, Serge Pun, is of Chinese heritage (and former Burma is having a nationalistic revival). Or maybe because YMAIF CEO Andrew Rickards (also not a Burman) told an interviewer that it would like to borrow more money to finance future investment in Myanmar. Last year it borrowed S$200 mn via a rights issue and it also did a private placement in 2012. The idea is to get real estate down to 10% of the holdings, from half. What The Economist's paean to Pun failed to mention is that the Yoma controlling shareholder also controls locally listed First Myanmar Investment Co Ltd which partners with it in property development project Star City. This has a scent of conflict of interest or backhanders but may just be Myanmar nationalism at work.

*Edison Research published a report on Canadian General Investments (CGI up north and CGRIF in the US) heralding the Morgan-Meighan-managed fund for “long term growth and income.” It is also ridiculously cheap vs its net asset value, trading at nearly 1/3 off. The negative is that it invests according to its managers' judgment and while it beats the Toronto index, it is not setting out to do so. That's why I like it.

*Eaton Vance Tax-Managed Global Equity closed-end fund EXG reports June 13. It is now earning its distributions with interest and capital gains rather than using piled up tax losses as it did last year. This is not really a wild frontier fund.

*Abengoa's euros 430 mn ipo for its Abengoa Yield plc sub was called “credit positive” by Moody's with no impact on ABGB's rating. ABY details are not yet available for the hoi polloi but its impact on its parent's stock price is clear.

*Simon Thompson in Investor's Chronicle again bulled up China's Camkids, CAMK, which trades on the London AIM because it is cash-rich and high-yielding. The problem is that British investors, and others, don't always believe the numbers showing a 1 pe ratio and a 6% plus yield coming from China via British brokerages. Having chased CAMK when Mr. Thompson was bulling up the share earlier, we decided to cut our losses and sold CAMK overnight at 70 British pence before we got his latest screed.

*New highs over the past 12 months include (how boring) Banco Santander, SAN, at $10.62 today, up 2.5% in Madrid to euros 7.8. It is now rated higher than Spain, with a rating of A- by Fitch. Spain's sovereign rating may be at risk because of the abdication of the king.

*Dutch Schlumberger at $105.

*SLB's 20% owned China arm Anton Oilfield Services, ATONY, also keeps rising, but failed to hit a new YTD or 12-mo high.

*Vale rose 2.5% on its nickel mine re-start but Brazilian iron ore giant VALE is still far from a high.

*Cosan Ltd. Also rose smartly. The reason is that polls show Dilma Roussef faces a run-off election which is felt to be good news for Brazilian corporations.

*When I wrote about Norwegian Air Shuttle yesterday, I had no idea there was an ADR, NWARF. The el cheapo airline has arranged funding to buy from Boeing 5 737-800 transatlantic jet aircraft financed by Enhanced Equipment Trust Certificates, a way for insurance companies to fund planes. The bite for the planes is $450 mn per and NWARF turned to Aviation Finance Co Ltd to set up the private placement. It allows a small order to be finely priced by being lumped with other small orders in a finance package.

The deal also helps US exports. However, after moving its registration from Oslo to Ireland, the budget carrier ran into flack from the US Air Line Pilots Assn for unfair labor practices. Its offshore contracts are alleged by our pilots to violate US laws. Its landing rights as a Norwegian registered airline have now been revoked for Atlanta. NWARF plans to launch its first Los Angeles-to-London flight July 2 at a mouth watering price and offer flights to and from New York's JFK and Fort Lauderdale later.

Back when I was a mere slip of a girl, the smart way to fly across the Atlantic was via Iceland with Loftlieder, which is how I went to Britain as a young bride. Later one flew with Skytrain, a budget airline founded by Freddy Laker. While both of these ventures failed in the end, they forced the major carriers to cut prices on the most profitable route on earth, between the US and London.

This is not a recommendation for NWARF, because the challengers could not compete in the end. I think Citigroup rates NWARF a sell, which may be overdoing pessimism.

But the 10-year-old Scandinavian airline is trying a high-risk strategy which you should take advantage of as long as you can. As noted, after we have flown the Atlantic to London with BA (which back in the dark ages when I first used it was called BOAC, but clearly survived), we head for Portugal with Norwegian Air, booked from the USA with CheapOair. CheapO then lost its credibility with me by trying to hugely overcharge for a car rental, beefing up the come-on price with fees and taxes (and unnecessary collision insurance.)

I had to cancel the auto reservation because nobody there could explain the boosted price. I ask questions. That's what you all pay me for.

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