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The S&P reclaimed its 200 DMA on Monday after comments from the Trump Administration over the weekend about reducing the scope of tariffs. However, yesterday it failed to hold it, closing 44 points below it.

The 200 DMA is the most important indicator in Technical Analysis – the only one I really care about in fact – because everybody in the market watches it. Everybody knows the cliche: “Nothing good happens below the 200 DMA”.

Therefore, today is shaping up to be a very interesting day. Will the S&P reclaim its 200 DMA once again? Or was yesterday’s failure to hold it indicative of the beginning of a new leg down? I wish I knew the answers but only the market action will tell us.

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As a professional investor, you try to find any scrap of data that will help you answer these kinds of questions. The one I’m focused on this morning is Winnebago (WGO) earnings.

WGO is small ($1 billion market cap) and not an important company to the overall market. But the product it sells, Recreational Vehicles (RVs), is the definition of a discretionary purchase. Therefore, its results can tell us how flush consumers are feeling.

And their 2QFY25 earnings report out this morning suggests consumers are not feeling great. WGO lowered full year FY25 Revenue guidance to $2.8-3.0 billion from $2.9-$3.2 billion and Adjusted EPS guidance to $2.75-$3.75 from $3.10-$4.40, respectively, compared to December 20, 2024 when they reported their 1QFY25.

The stock is bouncing in the premarket because it is massively oversold, down 50% over the last year, so I suppose investors are relieved that things aren’t even worse. But from a macro standpoint, it’s not encouraging.

It’s just one data point but I continue to feel that the market is setting up for another leg down as I wrote on Friday.

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