Bullish view

• Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6565.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
• Add a stop-loss at 0.6710.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The AUD/USD exchange rate rose slightly on Thursday morning after the country published mixed jobs data. It also reacted to the soft macroeconomic numbers from China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. It was trading at 0.6615, a few points higher than the intraday low of 0.6565.

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Australian and China's economic data

The AUD/USD pair rose after the latest Australian jobs numbers revealed that the unemployment rate rose slightly in July. It moved from 4.1% to 4.2% even as the country created over 58.2k jobs in July. The job additions was higher than the median estimate of 20.2k.

Data also showed that the country’s participation rate rose from 66.9% in June to 67.1% in July. These numbers mean that the labor market was doing well, which could mean that higher interest rates are here to stay for a while.

The data came two days after the statistics agency published the closely watched wage price index report, which has an impact on the country’s inflation. The index remained unchanged at 4.1% but slipped from 0.9% to 0.8% on a QoQ basis.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy was not doing well as the house price index dropped by 4.9% in July. Fixed asset investments and industrial production slowed to 3.6% and 5.1%, respectively, missing the analysts estimates of 3.9% and 5.2%. China’s economic numbers are important for Australia because it is its biggest trading partner.

Looking ahead, the AUD/USD pair will react to the upcoming data dump from the United States. Some of the numbers to watch will be the upcoming retail sales, export and import price index, NY and Philadelphia manufacturing index, and retail sales. These numbers will likely have no impact on the Fed, which is expected to start slashing rates in September.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate formed a hammer pattern on Monday last week as the Japanese yen carry trade unwinding continued. The lower side of the hammer was at 0.6348 and the pair has now jumped to over 0.6600. In price action analysis, hammer is one of the most bullish patterns in the market.

The pair is consolidating at the 50-day moving average while the Percentage Price Oscillator and the Awesome Oscillator are pointed upwards. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the key resistance point at 0.6700.

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