A Raft Of Hong Kong News And Our First Ever Malaysia Aviation Note

Because I am participating in the Deutsche Bank ADR presentations intermittently today, there will be no free blog. As already reported yesterday, California reader DvN aced the contest we ran by correctly stating that the author was Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, and also getting the tie-breaker, the subject of his letter: it was the Piano Concerti 11 to 13. Actually, Mozart's middle name was Gottlieb but he changed it to sound more international.

More follows on the run mostly from Hong Kong-China, with the odd mining or other note from Canada, Malaysia, Poland, Britain, Israel, Ethiopia, Argentina, Australia, Ireland, Cuba, Finland, India, and Luxembourg.

*L'Occitane International of Luxembourg, franchise of l'Occitane en Provence shops and distribution networks for its plant-based skin concoctions, is now listed here as LCCTY as well as in Hong Kong as 0973.

*UK Chancellor George Osborne's Budget Speech yesterday was a downside surprise for Mechanical Gaming Devices. He announced an increase in MGD (one-armed bandit) tax from a current 20% to 25%. On the face of it, it appears bad but I think the impact on Paddy Power plc will be marginal given its online internet gambling and spread betting operations. Other UK bookies are more into slot machines and often have multiple shops in a single lower-class neighborhood because they are only allowed to have 4 MGDss per store.

*JD.com - the Chinese e-commerce rival to Alibaba - will be virtually takeover-proof once it completes its US listing. Both avoided Hong Kong to be able to retain a 2-class shareholder structure which HK bans. We have a horse in this race, Tencent and JD.com, indirectlyTCTZF president Martin Lau told the results conference call yesterday how it is building its e-com position (edited from transcript at www.Seekingalpha.com):

"Weixin Payment strengthened our presence in physical goods in commerce through partnership. In early March, we entered into a strategic partnership with JD.com, the largest managed physical goods eCom platform in China. We obtained approximately 15% new shares in JD.comand we’re subscribing additional 5% interest at the IPO.

"JD has become a preferred partner in physical goods businesses. We’re transferring our marketplace in logistics personnel to JD to capture scale and geographic synergies. Immediately after the transaction,JD.com holds a 9.9% interest in Weixin and we expect JD to eventually exercise the co-option to acquire the remaining interests of Weixin.

"We’ll support JD.com by providing level 1 access planes in Weixin and Mobile QQ [plus more] traffic in advertising support. LeveragingJD.com’s enriched product selection, nationwide logistics network and after sales statistics, we can enhance end-to-end shopping experiences for our users.

"But JD.com is one of the multiple transactions that we have done over the past six months with best-in-class vertical players at both investor as well as operations level.

"eCommerce strategy will be two-pronged. The first is around physical goods, eCommerce in the managed way. It’s sort of having a shopfront as well as having a marketplace that host a lot of different merchants selling products. [In] this kind of format, we will partner with JD.com[to] leverage a lot of our platform advantages as well as our traffic. [So we would] support JD.com to keep on building scale [as] a leading B2C merchant [and] build a large marketplace that host different merchants.

"We also partner with various retailers who want to sell their products online on the mobile Internet. A lot of merchants want their own shop. They don’t necessarily want to be part of a big marketplace. "Some may just have [one] specific product they want to sell on the mobile Internet. A lot of them would have their own user base and just want a shopfront. This is our managed distributed ecosystem of eCommerce that Weixin will continue to support through our official account, through our payment systems, through our Guan Dian Tong advertising network.

"I think market competition is intensifying across the board. It’s very clear that mobile Internet has a range of new possibilities. In the past when on the PC Internet, you are limited by the device, you are limited by the time you are online. But the mobile Internet basically sort of the mobile device asking some extension of a person’s body as well as person’s everyday life.

"So that’s why everybody sees opportunity. Opportunity also gives rise to new entrants. It gives rise to ways to which the online industry can connect with traditional industries.

"We see competition increasing, [and] opportunities expanding. And in this kind of environment, we felt we will be making investments in strengthening our own platform, in building an ecosystem that would connect our platforms with different industries who want to get onto the mobile Internet and access users. We also want to invest in best-in-class vertical players so that together we can build unique services and unique value- added. These are the areas that we will be investing our resources."

It is slightly terrifying but we are in eCom this way. No Alibaba for me.

*Guangshen Railway is up over 5.3% today. GSH. No idea why but it may mean Chinese exports are expected to do better with a cheaper Yuan.

*Anton Oilfield Services (ATONY) is becoming the only way to play the private side of China's oil and gas exploration. WSP Holdings (WH) which we used to own, filed lots with the SEC over a delay in its full buyout and privatization until summer and the spinoff of some of its non-API oil country tubular goods pipe and connector businesses. At this stage you don't know what WH owns or divested.

*CAE reported that it won a C$140 mn in contracts for simulators from the US Navy, and for Agusta-Westland SW4 helicopter simulators for the German Air Force, Malaysia (which needs them!) and for the Polish Air Force School in Debin, to be delivered by 2016.

*Orocobre reported progress on relocating its Argentina borax chemical plant. It's being moved from Campo Quijano to Tincalayu by midsummer. The dismantling is 92% done and the installation 85% done, on time and within budget. The relocation will cut operating unit costs and also increase overall mineral recovery from the mine. Historically, run-of-mine ore at 17% B2O3 has been concentrated at Tincalayu using dry magnetic separation to produce a 21% grade which will then be transported 350 kms from Tincalayu to Campo Quijano for borax production. Recovery through the dry magnetic separation plant has previously been only ~60%. When the borax plant relocation to the Tincalayu mine site is complete the borax plant will treat run-of-mine ore without the use of the magnetic separation plant. This will result in no loss of mineral content prior to the borax plant as there will be no concentration stage. It will also remove the dry magnetic separation concentration stage operating costs. The freight cost will be reduced because cargo will be of finished products with B203 grades at 37-49% from 21% before. The capital budget for the move is US$3.7 mn.

*Allana Potash Corp began technical cooperation with Israel Chemicals under their strategic alliance. Senior ALLRF and ISCHF technical and development teams are meeting to define priorities to advance the Danakhil Potash Project in Ethiopia.. ALLRF called a special meeting of shareholders on March 28 to authorize issuing another 30.6 mn Units of Common Shares and Warrants to ISCHF for ~$14.4 mn,. Subject to the shareholder approval, closing of the Second Tranche will ocur by March 31. Allana directors and officers who own 1.4% of stock will vote to issue the 2nd tranche of units.

Programs will be launched in Ethiopia and Djibouti this month on hydrology and water supply design, solution mining and evaporation pond operations and output, and production transportation logistics, staging, and storage. Allana is paying a heavy price to benefit from ICL's Dead Sea Work technical expertise and links to the global finance and potash players. ALLRF got environmental approvals last May 2013 and a Mining License in October, plus links to major development financing institutions and export credit agencies in mid-2013. ISCHF committed to purchase production of output up to 1 mn tonnes/yr with a take-or-pay commitment on a minimum of 80% of output from the Project.

*Denison Mines hit a high grade uranium mineralization at a new target area near the Phoenix deposit at Wheeler River in Saskatchewan; DNN is the operator and holds a 60% interest in the project, while Cameco holds 30%. CCJ.

*Independent stock researchers at Trefis figure that the potential hit to Nokia from its Indian tax dispute has been overstated. It argues that NOK stock is worth about $28 bn and a ~$500 million hit due to the Indian tax dispute would cause its valuation to drop by less than 2% at the current market price. While India is pushing hard for a payout, if it overplays it hand, Nokia may simply walk away. Microsoft may fill the gap, Trefis argues:

"~250 million handsets (smartphones and feature phones) are estimated to have been sold in India in 2013, up y-o-y by ~14%, according toGartner. With a market share of about 19%, according to CMR India, Nokia sold about 48 mn mobile phones in India last year. Assuming an average selling price of $35, about Rupees 2100, we expect Nokia generated revenues of about $1.6-7 bn from Indian handset sales in 2013. This implies an Indian sales mix of about 15% of its total device revenues for the year. "Given the high growth of India's smartphone market and Nokia's better brand value at the low end, this mix could increase going forward.India is therefore a strategic market for Microsoft.

"Microsoft and Nokia could go ahead with the blocked transfer and consider setting up manufacturing plants outside India. Given the cheap labor in other Asian countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, this could be a smart move. With the asset transfer blocked, Nokia would then get back control of its factory, which it could run as a contractor to Microsoft in the near term until the overseas facilities are set up. Following this, Nokia could exit India altogether, with the subsidiary declaring bankruptcy and leaving the factory assets with the IT department as cover for its tax liabilities."

*GlaxoSmithKline's cancer vaccine MAGE-A3 failed a 2nd phase III trial against non-small cell lung cancer following an earlier failure against melanoma. GSK is reduced to trying to find a subpopulation of cancer patients for which it works. Shares of GSK fell 2% and those of its US adjuvant producer, Agenus, AGEN, are off 13%. We own GSK for its yield. Cancer cures are a hope but dividends are reality.

*Covidien shareholders defeated an attempt to remove their preemptive rights when shares are issued. They will be rewared by a 32 cents/quarter dividend by the Irish device maker.

*We are not selling Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund, CUBA, because its US holdings as of the close of 2013 were very high because of cash accumulated for the special dividend we received. Thanks to Cecilia Gondar for helping explain what is up. I still think they failed to properly account for Belize stocks but everybody makes mistakes.

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