2008 Has Already Happened In The Energy Sector

We’re approaching a level of truly horrific returns in the energy space as the price of oil continues to crumble in the early days of 2016. There are quite a few people predicting a repeat of 2008, but the reality is that the energy space has already experienced its 2008.

To put things in perspective, here’s a chart of the energy sector’s performance over the course of the last two booms and busts. During the 2003-2008 bull market the energy sector rallied 290% before cratering about 45%. The sector then rallied 140% off the 2009 lows before topping in 2014 and collapsing 41%.

energy

A number of analysts have predicted that the price of oil could decline to $20 in which case the pain is likely to get worse in the short-term here. But for those predicting that 2008 is right around the corner – well, it already happened. Savvy players in this space have to be licking their lips at some of the long-term possibilities out there as the bear market in the commodity space creates opportunities for those who were a bit more prudent during the boom.

Disclosure: None.

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Tom Kauser 9 years ago Member's comment

We built less gasoline than last EIA which isn't 100 % bearish!

Carol W 9 years ago Contributor's comment

where access to Cude easy so it is thru US not Europe that is it readily available the more we put in inventory longer time frame for recovery.

Carol W 9 years ago Contributor's comment

Crude market is hostage to China and their currency...not supply or demand. The physical market is not an issue- 150 million barrles here in USA whehre access is easy access to CRude is thru US not Europe the more we put in inventory longer time frame for recovery.

Gary Anderson 9 years ago Contributor's comment

I remember 10 dollar oil in the oil patch, around the 1990's right? Houses were for sale, as people lost jobs. The oil patch values declined massively. Debt forces fire sales. The low price destroyed the Soviet Union. You wonder if this round is political as well.

Hey Cullen, targeting NGDP seems to be "working" in Japan, except for two things. First, is it just speculation as the BOJ buys Reits, and second, are low long bond rates making mortgages too low interest to allow profits for the banks?