COTTON

General Comments: Cotton closed higher for the week and trends are up on the weekly charts. Hurricane Delta moved through the Delta and Southeast a couple of weeks ago and did some damage to Cotton. Open bolls were reported in both regions and Cotton fiber was discolored or else blown out of the bolls due to the rain and winds. The discolored Cotton is getting a chance to recover now as it has turned dry and the fiber can be naturally bleached by the Sun. Heavy rains are returning to the Southeast this week and Cotton could be hurt again. The weekly export sales report showed improved demand last week and was considered a reason to buy futures. There was no major Chinese demand. Demand should stay generally weak as long as the Coronavirus is around. Shopping is hard to do and many people are still unemployed.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal in the Delta and in the Southeast. Texas will have showers and snow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.00 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 38,888 bales, from 36,963 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 7110, 7000, and 6920 December, with the resistance of 7240, 7270, and 7300 December.

Crop Progress
Date 25-Oct 18-Oct 2019 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 95 93 94 92
Cotton Harvested 42 34 44 42
Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 6 25 29 32 8
Cotton Last Week 10 23 27 31 9
Cotton Last Year 9 15 40 33 7

FCOJ

General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher. Florida has been spared any hurricanes or other serious storms this year in a year that has been very active for tropical storms. The next tropical system will also miss the state as it moves into the central Gulf coast and then into Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama. The Coronavirus is still promoting the consumption of FCOJ at home. Restaurant and foodservice demand has been much less as no one is really dining out. Florida production prospects for the new crop were hurt by an extended flowering period, but the weather is good now with frequent showers to promote good tree health and fruit formation. Showers are falling in Brazil now to help production and tree condition. Mexican crop conditions are called good to very good with ample rains.

Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 114.00, 110.00, and 109.00 November, with resistance at 119.00, 121.00, and 126.00 November.

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were a little higher in both markets. London had been supported due to stronger demand ideas and worries about the weather in Vietnam and the country is getting too much rain now and flooding is being reported in the Central Highlands. The rains should continue for another week. The demand from coffee shops and other foodservice operations is still at very low levels as consumers are still drinking coffee at home. Reports indicate that consumers at home are consuming blends with more Robusta and less Arabica. The Brazil harvest is over and producers are selling due to the recent extreme weakness in the Real. Ideas are that production is very strong this year as it is the on year for the trees. Central America is also offering right now and offers are increasing. The weather is good in Colombia and Peru.

Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 1.128 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 105.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see light to moderate showers.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 103.00, 100.00, and 98.00 December, and resistance is at 107.00, 109.00 and 111.00

December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1280, 1320, and 1340 November.

SUGAR

General Comments: New York and London were a little higher after trading lower early in the session. Rains are falling now in Brazil to improve Sugarcane growing conditions. India has a very big crop of Sugarcane this year but the exports have been hard to make. The Indian government has not yet announced the subsidy for exporters of Sugar so no one knows how much to charge yet. Thailand might have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season. Rains are moving through the country now from Vietnam and the Pacific. The EU is having problems with its Sugarbeets crop due to weather and disease. Brazil mills have been producing more Sugar and less Ethanol due to weak world and domestic petroleum prices. About 45% of the crush this year will go to Sugar, from 35% last year. Demand appears to be about average.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal. USDA said that Sugarbeets were 89% harvested, from 83% last week, 53% last year, and 66% average.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1510 and 1580 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1410 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 390.00, 388.00, and 385.00 December, and resistance is at 405.00, 409.00, and 412.00 December.

DJ Brazil Dry Weather in September Boosted Sugar Output — Market Talk

1448 ET – Unusually dry weather in Brazil’s center-south states in September helped boost sugar-cane processing to a record so far this year, according to sugar and ethanol producer’s group Unica. The region’s sugar mills can operate 24 hours a day, seven days a week during the harvest, and harvesting work can also be 24 hours a day, weather permitting, and the mills were able to operate 91% of the time in September, Unica said. The time of utilization of mills for the 2020 harvest season to date has been 88%, above the historic average, according to the group. There was an average of 41% less rain in the center-south states through September, Unica said. The dry weather has also meant more fires than normal in cane fields, coming earlier than is ideal, and could have a negative impact on the development of the cane next year, according to Unica technical director Antonio de Padua Rodrigues. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

COCOA

General Comments: New York and London were higher and made new highs for the move. The harvest for the next main crop is spreading through much of West Africa and very strong production is expected. There are a lot of demand worries as the Coronavirus is making a comeback in the US. Europe is also seeing a return of the pandemic. The North American and European cocoa grinds were at least 4% lower than a year ago and the Asian cocoa grind was down 10% from last year. Ivory Coast is in the middle of the presidential campaign season and some violence s expected.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions today and showers this weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.485 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2640, 2810, and 2980 December. Support is at 2450, 2420, and 2370 December, with resistance at 2530, 2580, and 2610 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1650, and 1620 December, with resistance at 1730, 1770, and 1810 December.