Image Source: Pixabay
 

Trump isn’t responsible for the secular decline. But he will soon speed things up.
 

Manufacturing and Services Chart Notes

• Manufacturing as a percent of nonfarm payrolls peaked during WWII at 38.47 percent.
• Services as a percent of nonfarm payrolls bottomed at 55.96 percent, also in WWII.
• NAFTA did not go into effect until 1994. By that time, manufacturing as a percent of payrolls already declined to 14.97 percent.
• By the time China joined the World Trade Organization, manufacturing as a percent of payrolls declined to 12.00 percent.

The chart shows that it is impossible for NAFTA to be responsible for the collapse. China is not the culprit either.

The bulk of the decline in manufacturing jobs is rising productivity. It takes fewer and fewer people to produce anything.

Trump cannot and will not reverse these trends, but he can accelerate them.

Manufacturing Jobs vs Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Jobs by Sector
 

Nonfarm Jobs by Sector Detail Since 1977
 

Change in Manufacturing Jobs
 

This is the first chart Trump can influence. And he already has.

In the grand scheme of things, manufacturing is of decreasing important compared to other sectors.

But tariffs are going to destroy jobs and cause a recession. Small businesses, especially small manufacturers, will be particularly hard hit.

Related Posts

September 4, 2025: Year-Over-Year Small Business Employment Growth Barely Above Zero

ADP reports the total YOY small business growth as +19,000.

The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings

On September 3, I noted The Unemployment Level Is Now Greater than Job Openings

For the first time since the pandemic unemployment is above openings.

The nonfarm payroll response rate is 42.6 percent with the same issues as with JOLTS

September 5, 2025: Jobs Report Misery – Only 22,000 Gain in August, June Revised to -13,000

August was a bad month for job seekers. Here are the grim details.

September 5, 2025: Since January 2023, BLS Jobs Revisions Were Negative 24 Out of 31 Times

Witness negative revisions 77 percent of the time, with more coming.

Recession anyone?

More By This Author: