Image Source: Pixabay
 

You probably saw the headlines: "Dow rallies 600 points as investors see little market risk from Venezuela action." Chevron (CVX) surged 4%, energy stocks celebrated, and everyone's talking about rebuilding opportunities.

Look, let me put this in perspective for you.

ExxonMobil (XOM) - the biggest energy player, the one everyone's saying will benefit from Venezuela - has a market cap of about $500 billion.

NVIDIA (NVDA)? $4.6 trillion.

Every single dollar that NVIDIA moves represents $24 billion in market capitalization. Every dollar.

So when ExxonMobil rallied a buck today on the Venezuela news, that's about $6 billion in market cap movement. NVIDIA was up over 2% this morning. That move alone - just NVIDIA's move today - is worth more than Venezuela's entire economy. By over double.

Are we done? Good. 'Cause I don't wanna hear it anymore.

Welcome to the People's Republic of NVIDIA
 

We've reached a point where market cap is just too big in a couple of products. Think about this: NVIDIA is bigger than any sovereignty other than maybe the US and China. When you think of NVIDIA, you start thinking of the size of France's economy. Actually, it's bigger than that.

Here's what people are missing about that comparison. Yes, I'm comparing market capitalization to GDP, and yes, the two don't mesh. But there's more movement on a day-to-day basis in NVIDIA's market cap than GDP for most entire countries.

And that's why today's rally has nothing to do with Venezuela and everything to do with Tesla having dinner with Trump.

Trump had dinner with Elon Musk. There you go. That's worth $50 billion. Best damn dinner he ever had. What do you think he had? Did he go for the lamb chops? Completely rare.

Tesla's move today - about a $15 jump times roughly 3 billion shares - that's about $50 billion in market cap movement. From a dinner.

Meanwhile, everyone's analyzing Venezuela like it matters.

Look around the tape today. It's a one stock stock market. Take all of energy combined - Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, throw them all together - and they still don't equal what NVIDIA is moving.

We've come that far. The stupidity of the market capitalization is wild.

So while CNBC talks about Venezuela "boosting oil supply" and energy sector opportunities, I'm watching order flow in NVIDIA because that's what actually sets the tone for the marketplace. 

This is literally a one-stock stock market, and everything else is just noise.

When you're trading in a world where one company's daily mood swings matter more than entire geopolitical events, you're not diversifying risk - you're concentrating it.

The advanced decline line was completely negative today while markets rallied. You're rallying on a negative advance decline line? Yeah, I got your rally right here.

This isn't a healthy, broad-based market responding to fundamental events. This is a few massive stocks dragging everything higher while the underlying market tells a different story.

Forget Venezuela. NVIDIA's order flow shows mildly bullish call buying - not huge, which tells me there's going to be wild instability. When call buying only minimally outpaces call selling in the name that drives the entire market, that's your real signal.

Tesla's getting a bid because of political connections, not car sales.

And the rotation into financials today? That's people desperately trying to find something - anything - else to buy when tech starts looking fully priced.

We're trading in the People's Republic of NVIDIA, run by a man in a leather jacket. Maduro's bad? Wait until you piss off Jensen. It's not off with your head - it's off with your GPU.

When news doesn't move markets because individual companies have become bigger than the news itself, you're not trading fundamentals anymore. 

You're trading the concentrated bets of a few massive market cap monsters.

Venezuela's a non-event not because it doesn't matter geopolitically, but because market cap concentration has made traditional analysis obsolete.

Nobody cares. Nobody cares about anything other than AI. They got their heads shoved right up the AI, and they just let it go.

This really is a weird time to be alive. 

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