• S&P500 posts gains ~80% of Decembers since 1950
• "Santa rally" covers last week of Dec + first 2 Jan days
• US data (delayed Q3 GDP, jobs) could sway equities
• Lower-than-expected Nov inflation raises rate-cut hopes
• Key dates: Dec 23 GDP, Dec 24 jobless claims, Dec 25 markets closed

December is historically one of the strongest months for the S&P500, with the index posting positive returns almost 80% of the time since 1950.

As the countdown to Christmas enters its final stretch, will we see a Santa rally in 2025?

This financial phenomenon is where stocks rise in the last week of December and the first two trading days of the new year.

Beyond chatter around a Santa rally, US equities may be influenced by key data including the delayed US GDP report among many others.

With US inflation printing unexpectedly lower in November, more data that supports the case for lower interest rates could provide a boost to US equities in the final weeks of 2025.
 

Events Watchlist:
 

Tuesday, Dec 23: US Q3 GDP – US500

A weaker than expected US GDP report may support the case for lower US interest rates in the first quarter of 2026. Traders are currently pricing a roughly 25% chance that the Fed cuts rates in January with this jumping to 65% by March.  
 

Wednesday, Dec 24: US initial jobless claims – NAS100

US markets close early for Christmas Eve, but we could see some last-minute action due to the initial jobless claims data. Signs of weakness in the labour force may offer one last boost to NAS100 before markets close for Christmas.
 

 
Thursday, Dec 25: Christmas Day

Christmas Day. Markets closed in the US, Canada and Europe.

Other major events this week:

Monday, 22nd December

• CNY: China loan prime rates
• SPN35: Spain trade
• TWN: Taiwan unemployment
• GBP: UK GDP
• USDInd: US Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Tuesday, 23rd December

• SG20: Singapore CPI
• CAD: BoC meeting minutes
• AUD: RBA meeting minutes
• US500: US GDP, industrial production, durable goods, consumer confidence

 Wednesday, 24th December

• TWN: Taiwan industrial production
• US500: US initial jobless claims
• US and most European markets close early on Christmas Eve.

 Thursday, 25th December

• Christmas Day. Markets closed in the US, Canada and Europe.

 Friday, 26th December

• JP225: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales
• Boxing Day. Markets closed in the UK, Canada, Australia and some EU countries

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