The Stock Market Has Predicted Nine Out Of The Last Five Recessions
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As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half-decade:
Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left scale), CAPE (tan, right scale). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: Shiller, NBER.
Even including today's rebound, the SP500 looks like a substantial decline.
And what are movements in the SP500 associated with (in addition to interest rates, VIX):
Figure 2: SP500 close (blue, left log scale), EPU (pink, right scale). Source: FRED, policyuncertainty.com.
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