The good news is:

• Market prices did not deteriorate while breadth did.

 

The Negatives

The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1^st trading day of each month.  

NY NH continued to deteriorate.

 

The next chart is similar to the 1^st one except it shows the Nasdaq composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with Nasdaq data.  

OTC NH is also deteriorating.

 

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red.  Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).

OTC HL Ratio continued moving downward. 

 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.

NY HLR also continued moving downward. 

 

The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue.  NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).  

NY NL has turned downward.

 

The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.

OTC NL has also turned downward.

 

The Positives

Prices held up pretty well as breadth deteriorated.

 

Seasonality

Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the 4th Friday of June during the 1^st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.  

OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024.  There are summaries for both the 1^st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.  Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week, so that data has been ignored.

Seasonality for next week has been mixed and a little stronger during the 1^st year of the Presidential Cycle than other years.

 

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of June.

The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle.

Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

 

OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1965-1  -0.50%  -0.11%  -0.11%  -0.78%  -1.51%  -3.01%

 1969-1  -0.66%   0.09%  -0.03%   0.09%   0.23%  -0.29%

 1973-1  -1.46%   0.19%  -0.76%   0.21%   0.59%  -1.23%

 1977-1   0.11%   0.11%  -0.05%   0.39%   0.49%   1.06%

 1981-1  -0.44%   0.29%  -0.21%   0.25%   0.21%   0.09%

 

 Avg     -0.59%   0.11%  -0.23%   0.03%   0.00%  -0.68%

 

 1985-1   0.44%   0.80%   0.38%   0.66%   0.29%   2.57%

 1989-1  -0.25%  -0.34%  -0.16%   0.33%   0.68%   0.26%

 1993-1  -0.12%  -0.29%  -0.29%   0.57%   0.88%   0.76%

 1997-1  -0.88%   1.26%  -0.43%  -0.68%   0.13%  -0.60%

 2001-1  -1.96%   0.21%   1.93%   1.36%  -1.17%   0.37%

 

 Avg     -0.56%   0.33%   0.29%   0.45%   0.16%   0.67%

 

 2005-1  -0.09%   0.14%   0.05%  -1.02%  -0.84%  -1.77%

 2009-1  -3.35%  -0.07%   1.55%   2.08%   0.47%   0.68%

 2013-1  -1.09%   0.82%   0.85%   0.76%   0.04%   1.38%

 2017-1   1.41%  -0.81%   0.74%   0.04%   0.46%   1.84%

 2021-1   0.79%   0.79%   0.13%   0.69%  -0.06%   2.33%

 

 Avg     -0.47%   0.17%   0.66%   0.51%   0.01%   0.89%

 

OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021 

 Avg     -0.54%   0.21%   0.24%   0.33%   0.06%   0.30%

 Win%       27%     67%     47%     80%     73%     67%

 

OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024

 Avg     -0.09%   0.10%   0.07%   0.02%  -0.15%  -0.05%

 Win%       46%     61%     53%     62%     51%     51%

 

SPX PY1

 Year       Mon     Tue     Wed    Thur    Fri    Totals

 1953-1   0.50%   0.67%  -0.12%   0.42%   0.08%   1.54%

 1957-1  -0.78%   0.79%  -0.13%   0.36%   0.23%   0.47%

 1961-1  -0.92%   0.88%  -0.02%  -0.37%   0.40%  -0.02%

 

 1965-1  -0.34%   0.19%  -0.63%  -1.31%  -0.60%  -2.69%

 1969-1  -0.46%   1.13%  -0.32%   0.25%   0.08%   0.69%

 1973-1  -1.43%   0.38%   0.43%  -1.18%   0.47%  -1.32%

 1977-1   0.45%   0.32%  -0.28%   0.16%   0.57%   1.22%

 1981-1  -0.24%   1.06%  -0.52%   0.11%  -0.19%   0.23%

 

 Avg     -0.40%   0.62%  -0.26%  -0.39%   0.07%  -0.38%

 

 1985-1  -0.24%   0.31%   0.17%   0.62%   0.32%   1.18%

 1989-1   0.17%  -0.20%  -0.24%   0.57%   1.76%   2.07%

 1993-1   0.57%  -0.06%  -0.61%   0.77%   0.22%   0.89%

 1997-1  -2.23%   2.02%  -0.82%  -0.60%   0.41%  -1.23%

 2001-1  -0.49%   0.34%   0.87%   1.14%  -0.95%   0.92%

 

 Avg     -0.44%   0.48%  -0.13%   0.50%   0.35%   0.76%

 

 2005-1  -0.07%  -0.20%   0.02%  -1.08%  -0.76%  -2.10%

 2009-1  -3.06%   0.23%   0.65%   2.14%  -0.15%  -0.18%

 2013-1  -1.21%   0.95%   0.96%   0.62%  -0.43%   0.89%

 2017-1   0.83%  -0.67%  -0.06%  -0.05%   0.16%   0.22%

 2021-1   1.40%   0.51%  -0.11%   0.58%   0.33%   2.72%

 

 Avg     -0.42%   0.16%   0.29%   0.44%  -0.17%   0.31%

 

SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021 

 Avg     -0.42%   0.48%  -0.04%   0.18%   0.11%   0.30%

 Win%       33%     78%     33%     67%     67%     67%

 

SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024

 Avg     -0.14%   0.14%  -0.01%  -0.02%  -0.16%  -0.17%

 Win%       41%     56%     49%     54%     45%     48%
 

Conclusion

All of the breadth indicators deteriorated last week.

Seasonality for next week has been modestly positive.

The strongest sectors last week were Energy (for the 2^nd week) and Leisure while the weakest were Biotech and Transportation (for the 2^nd week).

I expect the major averages to be lower on Friday June 27 than they were on Friday June 20

Last week there was not much movement.  The SPX was down slightly while everything else was up slightly.  So I am calling last week's negative forecast a tie.

 

---

More By This Author:

Technical Market Report For June 14, 2025
Technical Market Report For June 7, 2025
Technical Market Report For May 31, 2025