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The range of predictions is quite wide this year and so the different surveys give very different results. It's that time of year when Wall Street's top strategists tell their clients where they see the stock market heading next year. Typically, the average of the group's forecasts sees the S&P500 up about 10%, which is in line with historical averages.

This time, however, professionals are unusually cautious with most expecting the S&P to close 2023 lower than where it is today. There are hundreds of pages of research and analysis that accompany these analysts' forecasts. Most Wall Street houses expect the US economy to enter a recession sometime in 2023. Many believe that 2023 earnings forecasts have more room to come down, and some believe that these downward revisions mean a lot of volatility for stocks in early 2023.

At the same time, many also expect a clear drop in inflation, which will give the Federal Reserve permission to relax its aggressive monetary policy stance. At least some strategists believe that if economic conditions worsen significantly, the Fed may even return to cutting interest rates.

Putting all this together, strategists expect a volatile first half to be followed by an easier second half, which could see stocks climb slightly higher. Here's a roundup of 16 of those 2023 predictions for the S&P 500, including highlights from analysts' comments. Targets range from 3,675 to 4,500 units. The S&P is currently at 4,001 points, which implies returns between -8.14% and +12.5%.
 

Technical look

From an Elliott wave perspective, we see S&P 500 in a corrective setback from ATH, but it's not clear if the correction came to an end or not. The reason is the recent unsuccessful break out of a downward channel, so that’s either now a temporary intraday pullback, or possibly even a wave.

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