Soft PCE Expectations

By Monica Kingsley of MonicaKingsley.co

Friday, July 26, 2024 8:43 AM EDT

S&P 500 met pretty contradictory growth and inflation data yesterday, choosing to first slide, do an oversold rally, and finally crater again. Money went of course into Russell 2000, regional banks and homebuilders – just a few of the post-CPI stars I had been highlighting after the fact.

Still when the upside momentum was good, I didn‘t trust the the rally‘s foundations, and treated it more as a squeeze, as paring back of bearish positioning ahead of today‘s core PCE. GDP came in hot at 2.8%, but durable goods orders somehow fell by -6.6%. Similarly, you see me taking on the inflation data in the below two posts in our channel – clearly stating as well what I think about the stock market path in the aftermath of core PCE (majority are expecting a soft figure). Most simply put, it‘s up, down, up intraday for S&P 500, and that‘s still before the US open – based on intermarket and macro reading, what comes next I‘ll cover on Telegram.

(Click on image to enlarge)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq