S&P 500 recovered from the bear trap laid and sprung Thursday as per Thursday‘s midday short video, then I cautioned all clients ahead of Friday‘s opening bell to equities dipping next, and it was UoM inflation expectation and flash services PMI delivering a blow through stagflationary fears raised in the near term. 

And I‘m expected slow job market deterioration in the weeks and few months ahead, beyond DOGE cost cutting. Tariffs will also come into play – we‘re seeing that with lumber and Canada – and the China situation remains also unresolved while Ukraine peace push is ongoing.

But the true, additional headline risk Friday was that new coronavirus bat strain discovery practically on the 2020 anniversary; the Vance speech in Europe echo, and finally the Lazarus $1.5bn crypto heist affecting risk-taking in general, too. 

The situation only highlights the necessity to rely on quality real-time updates and full scale analysis – not just at these quick turning points where getting my outlook is most beneficial for your own decision making – e.g. which ES support level would be worth considering for the buyers to step in (hint – it was not yet 6,088 – the bear flag on hourly broke immediately to the downside), how much more pain there is ahead – how would swing or intraday traders ideally approach Friday‘s shift.

Highly awaited are Wednesday‘s NVDA earnings (have you noticed how tech is positioning ahead of these?). Forget not about CB consumer confidence Tuesday and core PCE Friday. Next week will be rich!

Here are also a few slides on current volatility (both of equities and of the bond market) so as to whet your appetite for the extensive Saturday‘s video – together with quick BTC and ETH follow-up.

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